>Be careful, last time Doug called a top, the DJIA surged another
>thousand points. But if you're so sure: wanna buy a put?
Jordan, I thought I'd been careful not to call a top since I embarrassed myself in late 1987/early 1988. I have said that recent valuations have historically been associated with steeply negative returns, but I've always embedded this in a caveat that overvalued markets can always get more so before they get less so. In fact, I got an email a few months ago making fun of my caution, taking it as evidence that the market was indeed topping out (you know the contrarian thinking: Pink Pundit sounds all clear, time to stock up on canned goods), and asking me if I anticipated being a curious footnote in some history of the 1990s. So when exactly did I make this prediction?
Doug