>I persist in believing that the chances of SS privatization happening
>here are very low. The rapidly approaching (already here?) Ursa Major
>stock market will put a swift stop to this little scheme.
Maybe. We'll see. I'd never underestimate the power of the U.S. political machine to do it anyway. Especially if, consciously or not, funneling SS money into the stock market will make busted mutual fund investors whole again.
The other day I met with a Japanese journalist who's in the U.S. to figure out what we make of the Asian crisis. I asked him why it seemed that the Japanese ruling class was so politically paralyzed and intellectually bereft - why, for example, they just can't devote the requisite amount of public yen to bailing out the banking system, like the U.S. did in the late 80s/early 90s. He said they were afraid of a popular backlash - and that there was quite a bit of Schadenfreude among the general public, watching the financiers squirm. I countered by saying that in the U.S. we had no such problem - Bush and Congress nationalized Citibank and spent $200 billion bailout out our criminals and incompetents with minimal debate or political fallout. Not so in Japan, apparently.
I've also talked with many welfare rights advocates who've said, doubting the ruling class's devotion to ending welfare, "They'll never let people starve in the streets." Of course they will.
American politics doesn't proceed by standards of reasonableness or humanity. So SS privatization could happen even if the bear roars - especially if we're early in a long-term bear market. People won't even realize how deep the bear's bite is until it's almost hit bone.
Doug