>Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>> I think the great U.S. bull market, which
>> will celebrate its 16th birthday this Thursday, may well
>> be on its last legs.
>
>Using my incredibly accurate sentiment indicator (DHBI - Doug
>Henwood Bearishness Index), I'm long the market with both hands.
Jordan, I haven't said anything terribly bearish since I learned my lesson after 1987. In fact, I've been very careful not to. I didn't panic during last October's selloff, which no dobut disapppointed the reporters who called me. I even published a piece in the Baffler making fun of permabears like Jim Grant, who won't talk to me anymore. You're free to use that indicator, but it ain't gonna hit very often.
The example you quoted of my alleged bearishness the other day ("short everything!") was either a product of alcohol or irony. The exclamation point suggests the latter.
>> Some recovery from here, and maybe even new highs, are possible,
>> but something's changed.
>
>What, exactly, would that be that changed?
Dunno, mass psychology. Goldman Sachs going public. Greenspan's speech patterns. Flat profits. The wretched performance of all but the biggest blue-chips and hottest Internet stocks. Declining 2Q U.S. productivity. The U.S. 2Q savings rate under 1%. Asia's refusal to stabilize and the continuing meltdown of Russia. Weakening Latin American economies. I know this ain't very scientific, but it all feels very different from previous selloffs. The reassurance machinery hasn't gone into high gear yet either - because, I suspect, the authorities want to talk the market down now, without having to raise rates and completely destroy Asia.
Doug