Albert A. Bartlett
Department of Physics
University of Colorado, Boulder, 80309-0390
(303) 492-7016 / 6952
bartleta at stripe.colorado.edu
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This is a revised version of an article that was published in The Social Contract Vol. 8, No. 3, Spring 1998, Pgs. 239 - 251. The entire issue was devoted to the celebration of the 200th anniversary of the publication by Malthus of his famous essay. The articles in this volume of The Social Contract are to be published as a volume, possibly in late 1998. The copyright for this resides with The Social Contract Press, 316.5 East Mitchell St. Petoskey, MI, 49770
(616) 347 1185; soccon at freeway.net
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INTRODUCTION
Two hundred years ago Thomas Robert Malthus was instrumental in introducing the world to a revolutionary new concept: the quantitative analysis of population problems. The analysis focused mainly on the different arithmetics of the growth of populations and of food supplies. Malthus showed that the use of numbers and simple analysis could yield an improved understanding of contemporary and future population problems, and that steady growth of populations would produce great and grave problems. Two hundred years of debate over the ideas of Malthus have left the debaters divided into two camps: the believers, who accept the idea that it is appropriate to use the quantitative analysis to gain an improved understanding of the growth of populations and of food supplies, and the critics who don’t. Here is a graphical representation of the believers and the several subgroups of critics.
I - Believers
II - Critics
a) Non-believers
b) Diverters
1) Other Causes
2) Sustainers
3) Them: not us
THE CRITICS OF MALTHUS
The world today faces enormous problems which the believers hold to be caused largely by population growth.
The non-believers say that the world population is much larger today than Malthus could ever have imagined, and thus far starvation seems not to have been a major limiting factor in stopping the growth of world population. Hence, they assert, the Malthusian message of quantitative analysis is wrong. From this they sometimes extrapolate to say that the human population can go on growing "forever." ( Simon 1995 )
It is easy to suspect that some of the non-believers are innumerate. ( "Innumeracy" is the mathematical equivalent of illiteracy. )
The diverters do everything they can to divert attention away from the quantitative Malthusian message about population growth, asserting that the numbers are not a central or important aspect of the problem.
THE DIVERTERS
The diverters are divided into three groups:
The other causes group would have people believe that the problems of population growth are best addressed, not by looking at the numbers, but by focusing our attention on other important things.
The sustainers try to convince people that we need not worry about population growth because "sustainable development" will solve the problems.
The them: not us group seeks to divert attention away from the population problem in the United States and instead to focus people’s attention on the growth of populations elsewhere.
In total, the the works of the several groups of critics constitute a massive effort to marginalize the modern Malthusian message.
THE TECHNIQUES OF MARGINALIZATION
The techniques of marginalization reflect the views of the different groups of critics.
NON-BELIEVERS: In dealing with the size of populations, the non-believers vigorously and authoritatively deny that quantitative analysis is important, that numbers mean anything, or that steady growth will produce intractable problems. This belief is supported by the observation that the world population in 1998 is much greater than Malthus would have anticipated, and the population growth continues. Many of the non-believers, are not scientists, yet they assert that science and technology have made this growth possible. For the non-believers it then follows that science and technology can make possible all things that we wish to have in the future. In this regard the non-believers seem to be putting their faith in Walt Disney’s First Law: "Wishing will make it so."
The non-believers marginalize Malthus by asserting that his predictions have been proven wrong, and hence his methods must be wrong.
DIVERTERS: The diverters use one or more of the following three ways to divert attention away from the Malthusian message of quantitative analysis.
(1) OTHER CAUSES: This group seeks to divert attention away from quantitative analysis and to focus it on any of a host of other relevant and important things such as the machinations of the multi-national corporations, excessive personal consumption of resources, large numbers of teen-age pregnancies, or on the failures of the systems of distribution, equity, justice, education for women, etc. The other causes people are often genuine humanitarians who are greatly to be admired because of their real records of achievement in their efforts to help solve problems in these other fields. The other causes people commonly claim that the problems are not simple ones that can be understood simply, using the Malthusian method of quantitative analysis. The other causes people may invoke complexity to give the impression that they, and not ordinary people, have the complex expertise is needed to understand and solve the problems. This serves to divert attention away from the fundamental Malthusian message of numbers and arithmetic, and leads the other causes people to advocate that priority attention should be given to these other causes rather than to the numbers per se.
(2) SUSTAINERS: The sustainers rely on the optimistic terms "sustainability" and "sustainable development." Their use of these terms gives the untutored listener the comforting impression that the sustainer understands the problems and their solutions. In order to achieve the desired diversion, the works of the sustainers follow two paths:
First, the sustainers must be authoritative; simultaneously they must be vague and contradictory in their use of terms. Above all, the sustainer should avoid giving the term "sustainability" a meaningful definition that would cause ordinary people or political leaders any discomfort in their daily lives.
Second, the sustainers gain credibility by advocating good programs such as reducing resource use, reducing waste, using energy more efficiently, etc. These programs are environmentally beneficial, but they are often interpreted to mean that these and similar programs are all that we need in order to achieve a sustainable society. By omission, these programs divert attention away from the fundamental Malthusian problem of the arithmetic of population growth.
Following these recommended programs does save resources, but unfortunately, the resources that the sustainers save are not preserved for the use of future generations, but rather are used to support the continued growth of the population. Thus the net result of many of the actions of the sustainers is to accomodate and hence to encourage continued population growth.
(3) THE "THEM: NOT US" GROUP: Some diverters in the U.S. assert that the population problem is a problem of "those people," meaning people in distant under-developed nations. By focusing on population problems in distant lands, the them: not us people divert attention away from the severe problems of population growth in the U.S.
The targets of the them: not us people are usually people of color, living in distant lands. When these people people of color see that the them: not us people have targeted them as the source of the problems, two uncomfortable responses may be made:
One response is to say that the problem is not the numbers of them, but rather is the excessive per capita consumption of resources by us in the developed nations. ( other causes ).
Another response is to say that the programs of the them: not us people are racist and genocidal.
FUNDAMENTALS
The term "sustainable" has to mean "for a very long time."
The arithmetic shows that steady growth ( a fixed percent per year ) which Malthus used in his analysis of populations, results in enormous numbers in modest periods of time. ( Many authors, including Bartlett 1978 )
These two facts lead to the first two Laws of Sustainability: ( Bartlett 1994, 1998 )
First Law of Sustainability: Population growth and / or growth in the rates of consumption of resources cannot be sustained.
Second Law of Sustainability: The larger the population of a society and / or the larger its rates of consumption of resources, the more difficult it will be to transform the society to a condition of sustainability.
These facts, and the laws derived from them, also support the observation that the term "sustainable growth" is an oxymoron.
The balance of this paper will give examples of the several types of marginalization of the modern Malthusian message.
NON-BELIEVERS
There is an abundant literature dealing with the non-believers. Some non-believers assert that the predictions of Malthus have not come to pass, that the world population in 1998 is much larger than Malthus could have ever imagined, therefore the world population can continue to grow essentially forever. This is an example of the "flying leap syndrome" in which a person leaps from the top of a very high building. The free-fall is exhilarating. After each of the first few seconds of free-fall, the person concludes that all is well, and soon reaches the ( logical ? ) conclusion that free-fall forever is a viable option. The end comes when the person strikes the ground. The ground is a boundary condition, a limit that was built into the falling person’s total environment; a limit that the person ignored at great expense. (Bartlett 1980)
The non-believers seem unaware of, or ignore, the fact that human activities have already caused great change in the global environment. May observes that ( May 1993 ):
... the scale and scope of human activities have, for the first time,
grown to rival the natural processes that built the biosphere and that
maintain it as a place where life can flourish.
Many facts testify to this statement. It is estimated that somewhere
between 20 and 40 percent of the earth's primary productivity, from
plant photosynthesis on land and in the sea, is now appropriated for
human use.
PROMINENT NON-BELIEVERS
On the national scene, there are prominent presidential-type people who are non-believers who confidently assert that there is no population problem.
When Jack Kemp, who was then the U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, was informed of a report from the United Nations that told of resource problems that would arise because of increasing populations, it was reported that he said, "Nonsense, people are not a drain on the resources of the planet." ( Kemp 1992 )
Another presidential aspirant, Malcolm Forbes, Jr., editor of Forbes Magazine, had a similar response to the reports of global problems that result from overpopulation in both the developed and underdeveloped parts of the world. In an editorial he responded, "It's all nonsense." ( Forbes 1992 )
These two expressions are consistent with a prominent Ponzi-type slogan that is often heard in U.S. presidential politics. Instead of claiming they will work to solve problems, the candidates assure us that, painlessly, "We can grow our way out of the problems."
In an article, "The Population Explosion is Over," Ben Wattenberg finds support for the title of his article in the fact that fertility rates are declining in parts of the world. ( Wattenberg 1997 ) Most of the countries of Europe are ( 1997 ) at zero population growth or negative population growth, and fertility rates in parts of Asia, have declined dramatically. Rather than rejoice over the clear evidence of this movement in the direction of sustainability, Wattenberg sounds the alarm over the "birth dearth" as though this fertility decline requires an immediate reversal.
The late Professor Julian Simon of the University of Maryland has advocated continued population growth long into the future. In the newsletter of a major think tank in Washington, D.C., Simon wrote:
We have in our hands now - actually in our libraries - the technology
to feed, clothe, and supply energy to an ever-growing population for
the next 7 billion years... Even if no new knowledge were ever
gained...we would be able to go on increasing our population forever.
( Simon 1995 )
In response to Simon, it has been noted that a spherical earth is finite, but a flat earth can be infinite in depth and lateral extent. So if Simon is correct, we must be living on a flat earth. ( Bartlett 1996 )
When evaluating contradictory recommendations from different people, all of whom have impressive academic credentials, it is important to remember another fundamental law: "For every Ph.D. there is an equal and opposite Ph.D."
SUSTAINERS: THE BRUNDTLAND REPORT
A great increase of awareness of the problems of global poverty and population problems came with the publication of the report of the United Nations World Commission on Environment and Development, the Brundtland Report, which is available in bookstores under the title Our Common Future. ( Brundtland 1987 )
In graphic and heart-wrenching detail, the Report places before the reader the enormous problems and suffering that are being experienced with increasing intensity every day throughout the underdeveloped world. In the foreword, before there was any definition of the term "sustainable," there was the ringing call:
What is needed now is a new era of economic growth - growth that is
forceful and at the same time socially and environmentally sustainable.
( p. xii )
These two concepts of "growth" and "sustainability" are clearly in conflict with one another, yet here we see the call for both. The use of the word "forceful" would seem to imply "rapid," but if this is the intended meaning, it would just heighten the conflict. No hint is given as to the definitions of the terms, "socially sustainable" and "environmentally sustainable?"
A few pages later in the Report we read:
Thus sustainable development can only be pursued if population size
and growth are in harmony with the changing productive potential of
the ecosystem. ( p. 9 )
"Population size and growth" are vaguely identified here as possible problem areas, but we don’t know what the Commission means by the phrase, "in harmony with ..."
By page 11 the Commission acknowledges that population growth is a serious problem, but then:
The issue is not just numbers of people, but how those numbers relate
to available resources. Urgent steps are needed to limit extreme rates
of population growth.
The suggestion that "The issue is not just numbers of people" is characteristic of non-believers. Neither "limit" nor "extreme" are defined, and so the sentence gives the impression that most population growth is acceptable and that only the undefined "extreme rates of population growth" need to be dealt with by some undefined process of limiting.
By now one can see how the sustainers and non-believers show great confidence as they make assertions that are both vague and ambiguous.
As the authors of the Report searched for solutions, they called for large efforts to support "sustainable development." The Report’s definition of "sustainable development" has been widely used by others. It appears in the first sentence of Chapter 2, ( p. 43 ):
Sustainable development is development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet
their own needs.
This definition gives no hint regarding the courses of action that could be followed by individuals or by governments to allow people to meet the needs of the present, but which would not limit the ability of generations, throughout the distant future, to meet their own needs.
It is obvious that non-renewable resources ( such as fossil fuels ) that are consumed now will not be available for consumption by future generations. Anyone advocating development has to know that if development is to be sustainable, it must call for major reductions in the rates of consumption of fossil fuels so that future generations may have access to these wonderful sources of energy. This fact is uncomfortable; hence it is rarely acknowledged by the sustainers.
The Brundtland Commission Report's discussion of "sustainability" is both optimistic and vague. The Commission probably felt that, in order to be accepted, the discussion had to be optimistic even though the facts point to pessimism. So it was necessary to be vague and contradictory in order not to appear to be pessimistic. Vagueness and ambiguity are the keys to the arguments of the sustainers.
The Brundtland Report of 1987 used vague and contradictory language in its advocacy and explanations of the new concept of sustainable development. In so doing, the Report led the way in the marginalization of the Malthusian message.
More recently, in contrast to the message of the report of her commission, Gro Harlem Brundtland, the Prime Minister of Norway, has spoken strongly about the urgency of dealing with population growth as Malthus did; by looking at the numbers. Speaking at the Rio conference in 1991 she:
... urged immediate steps to address population growth.
Poverty, environment and population [size] can no longer be dealt
with, or even thought of, as separate issues. ( Holloway 1992 )
In the commencement address at Harvard in 1992, Brundtland said: ( Harvard, 1992 )
Technological trends, patterns of production and human consumption -
and pure human numbers - call for radical changes in order to
reconcile human activities with the laws of nature.
I have been stunned to see how the Rio conference seems to fail to
make workable decisions on how to curb population growth.
In literature of an international population group, the Norwegian Prime Minister is quoted as saying: ( PCI 1998 )
Rapidly expanding population effectively strangles most efforts to
provide adequate education, nutrition, health care, and shelter.
SUSTAINERS: THE AGENDA 21 REPORT
Ambiguity about the meaning of "sustainability" was advanced in a more recent report that came out of the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro, which was:
...the largest gathering of world leaders in history [ which ] endorsed
the principle of sustainable development. ( Committee for a National
Institute for the Environment
1993 )
The published version of the report carries the impressive title, Agenda 21, The Earth Summit Strategy to Save Our Planet. ( Sitarz 1993 ) The text discusses the relation between population growth and the health of the planet:
The spiraling growth of world population fuels the growth of global
production and consumption. Rapidly increasing demands for natural
resources, employment, education and social services make any
attempts to protect natural resources and improve living standards
very difficult. There is an immediate need to develop strategies aimed
at controlling world population growth. ( p. 44 )
The first sentence is quite reasonable; but in the third sentence, what is meant by "controlling?" "Controlling world population growth" could mean, "hold the annual population growth rate at its 1993 value of approximately 1.6 % per year," which no numerate person would suggest. Why does the Report use the phrase "controlling world population growth" when one suspects that the Report’s authors know full well that the critical challenge is to "Stop world population growth?" Having thus made a politically correct statement of the problem, the Report then lists the things that need to be done. Here we would expect that the authors would concentrate on the hard realities. Instead, it is all ambiguity. Perhaps their strongest recommendation is:
The results of all research into the impact of population growth on the
Earth must be disseminated as widely as possible. Public awareness of
this issue must be increased through distribution of population-related
information in the media. ( p. 45 )
How are we going to increase public awareness of the problem of "the impact of population growth on the Earth" if the crucial Report that gives guidelines for the future, won't talk frankly and honestly about the problem? How are we going to educate the public about the problem of population growth if we fail to set forth clearly the known concrete details of "the impact of population growth on the Earth?"