Shortly after Mark and I had our exchange I had a consulting gig with the American Methanol Institute and co-wrote a glossy document on fuel cell vehicles with members of the AMI. I am however listed as principal author, for reasons that had to do more with the preferences of my co-authors than myself. Since I'm tenured I can't be fired, so any of the flaws in the document can be attributed to me. The document does not reflect my views 100% (in particular, it makes a resource depletion argument similar to Mark Jones'), but people interested in the new fuel cell technologies will find it a useful resource. In particular, I was at pains to include a number of links in the extensive bibliography to other sites. I don't know whether the pdf version at the site below has "active" or "passive" links. The site also provides a type-in-your-address form so you can get a hard copy of the glossy.
Based on my conversations with industry and with air quality regulators (primarily in California) I am convinced that we are in the initial stages of a transition to a new transportation system based on fuel cells. This will probably push, in the near term, energy consumption to a higher efficiency, lower pollution mode, at costs comprable or less than "today's" (though cranking today's very low spot prices might belie that point, but I speak in terms of 3 year trends). The principal feedstock will probably shift from petroleum to natural gas, but even if in the short term gasoline-fed fuel cells become the norm, the transition to methanol feedstocks will be that much easier in the medium term. However, the OEMs have strong preferences for methanol (made from natural gas).
At 25-50 kW of output the typical fuel cell vehicle could furnish power for all the appliances in a typical house. It could obviate the need for capital intensive power complexes and make the development of transportation synonymous with the introduction of electrification. The ramifications for development in both OECD and developing countries are not clear to me. It could be possible, for example, to install a stove-sized fuel cell (running on natural gas) in one's basement and make electricity from a natural gas line. This could be competitive with cartel electricity in many locales (especially NY, where we are nearly double the national average). The generalization of fuel cell technology will also have significant military applications, since it will become technically very simple to make an extremely quiet submarine that can run for long periods under water, without going the nuclear route. We should also expect that mini-fuel cells for cell phones, personal computers, etc., will be marketed in the next few years.
In any case the politics of the transition are extremely unclear to me since we can expect the usual resistance from the oil industry. Moreover OPEC has very low production costs and can price to meet whatever the functional price-per-mile of a methanol fuel cell vehicle is. But certain areas are likely to be pushed to the transition by technical considerations (pollution, especially, also greenhouse gases) and at that point some of the obvious benefits (we can expect extremely low maintenance costs on fuel cell vehicles) will probably push the technology on its own. I have been in the alternative fuel biz on and off for about ten years now and have long been accustomed to the notion that fuel cells were too expensive and technically impossible. That situation appears to have changed decisively in the past two to three years.
Interested parties may consult:
http://www.methanol.org/fuelcell/special/promise.html
As well as the usual search algorithms for other sites on the web (but I do list a fair number of sites in the biblio, as mentioned). --
Gregory P. Nowell Associate Professor Department of Political Science, Milne 100 State University of New York 135 Western Ave. Albany, New York 12222
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