>The questions about shipping problems between the US and Asia are
>interesting. I work in electronics, and we are not slowing down in the
>slightest.
Eh? What kind of electronics? I thought computer/chip makers were among the first to feel the Asian chill.
>One of our vendors, a contract manufacturer, recently told me that the
>way to tell how the economy is doing is to look at makers of power
>supplies (which are in almost everything) and at transportation. If the
>trucks aren't running, you know we're in trouble. I'm not sure how to go
>about looking at these, however. For instance, there are lots of
>economic indicators that are based on electronics, but are not broken
>down into types ebyond semiconductors and "other".
>
>Asian semiconductor companies are not doing very well, but most US
>companies are trudging along. Meanwhile, European companies like ST
>(previously SGS Thompson) are doing well because they have been able to
>come into the US and undersell all the US companies.
>
>Does anybody know how to go about testing this man's theory? Where would
>I be able to find info about domestic shipping trends?
Freight car loadings is one popular indicator; I think it's featured in Barron's every week. There's also a Baltic Freight Index, which is a price index for ocean shipping (not domestic); a futures contract on it trades in London.
The old Dow Theory of the stock market held that up moves in the Industrials had to be confirmed by the Transports; if the Industrials rise without the Transports following in tandem, then what was being made wasn't being sold. Not that the stock market is a reliable indicator of anything, of course, but that's the ancient wisdom.
Doug