risk assessment at MSDW

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Aug 28 11:30:11 PDT 1998


[John Mage asked me to forward this]


>From Morgan Stanley's London economist/analyst Kevin Gardner today (August
28th) <http://www.ms.com/GEFdata/digests/latest-digest.html#xtocid232352->

"...it is pointless at this stage to take reassurance in that (say) UK direct exposure to Russia is minimal. The threat of contagion appears real, and if the UK's EU partners and/or the US are affected, there will be no place to hide. And the risk may not only be that of a global recession: the "End of History" paradigm is being challenged by the possibility of a more thorough-going rejection of capitalism in Russia and Asia. When MSDW's [Morgan Stanley Dean Witter] strategists got toether in a recent seminar, one of the key assumptions which most of us felt was shared across the global marketplace was the acceptance of the US model: this could now be under question, with potential consequences which extend beyond immediate changes in yields and rates."



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