statistical fallacy of ageing population

Max Sawicky sawicky at
Tue Dec 1 06:26:25 PST 1998

> . . .
> What all this means for Social Security is a different story, of course.
> Summers and his coauthors conclude, through arguments I sort-of follow--a
> smaller workforce requires a smaller capital stock; other industrial
> countries are aging even faster, and therefore will be investing in the
> US; slower population growth is associated with faster productivity
> growth--that demographic shifts indicate a lower, not higher savings rate,
> and in particular that "population aging does not constitute a strong
> argument for accumulating a large social security trust fund."

Could you provide a cite for this paper? I'd like to put up a billboard across from the White House emblazoned with the last sentence you quote.


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