>That's why I was a bit shocked to see your last LBO, where you say that
>the worst of the crisis may be over.
Don't forget all the wimpy qualifiers I packed into that haruspication. And these two paragraphs:
Anything can happen. Wall Street could lose its refound nerve and resume late summer's collapse. There could be a run on the dollar, and suddenly the U.S.'s $2 trillion debt could really come due. The debt-driven U.S. consumption boom, which has given us the first negative savings rate since the early 1930s, could run into a wall. In fact, the pricking of the U.S. bubble, since it's the least expected possibility of all, could be the thing to worry about. [...] Even if the crisis phase is over, something does seem to have changed; the Dow may be pushing 9,000 again, but it's hard to imagine the superbullishness of the last 16 years returning with its old intensity; if you read Greenspan closely, it sounds like he wouldn't let it happen. But if it did, would he raise interest rates to stop it, and revive the crisis? Will Asians tolerate years of depression? Will Brazilians? Could American complacency survive the end of the bull market? Still more questions than answers.
Doug