Privatization Pep Rally

Max Sawicky sawicky at
Thu Jul 30 10:56:11 PDT 1998

Doug helpfully provided these figures:

> GDP yearly
> 1992$ growth
>1929 790.9 +6.3%
>1930 719.7 -9.0%
>1931 674.0 -6.3%
>1932 584.3 -13.3%
>1933 577.3 -1.2%
>1934 641.1 +11.1%
>1935 698.4 +8.9%
>1936 790.0 +13.1%
>1937 831.5 +5.3%

>And here are the decade figures, which will no doubt scandalize the
non-bohemian Cde Sawicky:
>annual average by decade
>. . .
>1930-40 2.72%

Here is the URL for the NBER biz cycle dating.

The depression-era cycle begins in August of 1929, as Doug said, and ends in May of 1937 (peak to peak). The next peak is 1945, which we can probably agree stretches "the thirties" too much.

If we simply average Doug's figures above for these years we get about 1.65, which is quite a bit less than the 2.72 average for the decade. So the period you choose makes a big difference and the 'depression' cycle wasn't as good as some have implied. It is true that the 'depression' cycle exceeds the trustees forecast of 1.4, though not by much. As I said, all concrete evidence to the contrary of this forecast would be most welcome. Even so, there is plenty of other ammunition against privatization.

> . . .
>By the way, Max, if you think there's anything Bohemian about the Upper
West Side in 1998, you obviously haven't been here lately. Godiva chocolates is right around the corner, as is Lucianne Goldberg and a Coach store.>

Ah but today's upper west sider's are merely yesterday's bohemians with larger music collections, IRA's, and chic new editions of The Communist Manifesto.


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