"Better times" cannot sustain stock prices

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Sun May 3 10:34:45 PDT 1998


Jordan Hayes wrote:


>I think it's hard to imagine it reversing; can you share your
>imagination a little?

Gradual decline leading to disappointment and growing anxiety among pros, who sell; the public, relying only on new savings (since there's not much juice left in the allocation switch), is only a weak net buyer; market drifts in a generally lower direction; bad news - from higher interest rates to mass unrest in China - leads to a sharp selloff and a weak recovery; process resumes from the top, with disappointment growing into fear growing into panic; public starts to catch on after the market is already down 20%, and seeks redemption in money market funds; mutual funds, besieged with sell orders, draw on light cash reserves, then sell, then sell more on the deepening panic; E*Trade customers quiver when the web server crashes; Fidelity needs a Fed bailout; Kindelberger becomes a best-seller....

Who knows if it'll happen, but it's not hard to imagine.

Doug



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