* 47 Civic Center Drive
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Say No to Indian and Pakistani Bombs
by
Pervez Hoodbhoy
The Indian nuclear test of May 11 was the subject of a talk at MIT
on May 12 by Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, professor of physics at
Quaid-e-Azam University. He was introduced by Dr. Abha Sur of The
Alliance For A Secular And Democratic South Asia, and the event was
sponsored by The Alliance, Pakistan Students Society at MIT, and
the MIT Program In Science, Technology, and Society. The talk had
been originally scheduled a month earlier on the subject of the
India-Pakistan nuclear and missile race; the near coincidence with
the Indian tests was purely accidental.
Friends,
This is a unique gathering here today at MIT, organized jointly by
Indians and Pakistanis. I do not know of a similar event anywhere
else but can only hope that there will be many such others.
Together we stand, joined in sorrow, disbelief, shock, and anger at
yesterday's event. We stand here to challenge the merchants of hate
and destruction, the makers and promoters of weapons that kill by
the millions, and the megalomaniacs who think that greatness comes
from the power to commit mass murder. We stand in protest against
the ideologies of hate created and promoted by our governments,
nurtured by the mass media and school textbooks, and remorselessly
hammered for decades into the minds of innocent children on both
sides of the border.
There cannot be any doubt that a grave new situation has arisen
with yesterday's nuclear tests. The tremors shall continue to shake
the subcontinent in the years and decades ahead, and the peoples of
India and Pakistan stand closer to the brink of disaster than ever
before. Once the euphoria passes, there will surely be much to
regret. But now we are witnessing grotesque and obscene
celebrations of the power to destroy. Today the corks are popping
and the champagne is flowing in Delhi. "We will soon bring Pakistan
to its knees", crows the president of the BJP, Khushabau Thakre.
Barely a month ago it was Pakistan that had been joyous after the
launch of the Ghauri missile. Euphoric crowds had made their
pilgrimage to the Kahuta laboratory, and Pakistan's Foreign
Minister, Gauhar Ayub, bragged about having overtaken India in
missile development. It is hard to imagine greater stupidity.
In the remainder of this talk I shall address five key questions
which we must reflect upon in order to see what lies ahead.
FIRST, will Pakistan indeed be "brought to its knees" by Indian
nuclear tests?
The answer is probably "yes" if the Pakistani leadership reacts as
Mr. Thakre and his BJP gang would like it to, and "no" if Pakistan
acts cautiously and wisely. Should it fall into the trap and test
an atomic device, the Muslim-haters of the BJP will have the
pleasure of seeing Pakistan destroyed economically as the rest of
the world turns the screws. Certainly, international sanctions are
bound to imposed upon India; these may cause it considerable pain
but will not cause it to collapse. But Pakistan is different.
Sanctions will deal its fragile, dependent, economy a devastating,
perhaps crippling, blow and plunge the country into a horrific
state worse than that in Indonesia today. If Pakistan tries to
match India bomb for bomb, missile for missile, and tank for tank,
it will shatter as certainly as a glass vase dropped upon a
concrete floor.
At the risk of having to say "I told you so", I will nevertheless
repeat that peace activists in Pakistan have, for the last 15
years, been ceaselessly urging their government not to get into a
nuclear competition with India. This is not a race that Pakistan
can ever win. That this was correct has now been proven beyond a
shadow of doubt. We had consistently argued that the real threat to
Pakistan is internal -- low rates of production coupled with an
excessive appetite for consumption, religious and ethnic tensions,
and an education system which collapsed years ago. I was therefore
astonished -- and delighted -- when just a week ago General
Jehangir Karamat, the most powerful man in Pakistan, came out with
an amazing statement saying that Pakistan's greatest challenge was
not India but its economy and internal situation. Our "heresies" in
years past were now being repeated as an Establishment truth! Will
the enlightenment survive the Indian tests? If it does, then there
is hope.
SECOND, is India now a super-power? More secure after testing
nuclear weapons and embarking on the path to inducting nuclear
weapons in its arsenal?
With 400 million famished and deprived people, and millions living
on the streets of Bombay and Calcutta, it is simply fantasy to
think that India is now a super-power. It cannot become so even if
it explodes 300 instead of 3 bombs. Of course, national security is
the formal reason given for the tests. But I think that India has
become far more insecure after having tested. For one, China has
been unneccesarily provoked. And, for another, Pakistan is in a
state of deep alarm. Pakistan has long had a nuclear programme and,
quite probably, has nuclear weapons. In the unlikely situation that
it does not have operational weapons today, it surely will in years
to come after being so directly threatened by India. A test in the
next few days or weeks is possible but, whether that happens or
not, the fact will remain that Pakistan will now move every muscle
to have a substantial nuclear arsenal and delivery capability.
It is interesting to note that there are quite a few people in the
Indian establishment who dismiss the possibility that Pakistan is
capable of nuclear weapons. In pleading for nuclear restraint by
India with such people, many people (including myself) have been
astonished by the certainty of their belief. Numerous examples
exist that illustrate the willingness of Indian policy makers to
engage in such self-deception. Until it was confirmed from multiple
sources and could be denied no further, many in India refused to
believe that the Ghauri had been launched -- successfully. It would
be a tragic mistake for India to think that Pakistan does not, or
will not soon be able to, have operational atomic weapons.
THIRD, does India have the "right" to have nuclear weapons given
that there are five declared nuclear weapons states in the world?
The answer is NO! Nuclear weapons are evil, mass destroyers of
human life, and morally indefensible. No country should possess
them, and it is the moral responsibility of the citizens of every
country to try and prevent their country from ever possessing these
horrible weapons. The United States, Russia, China, Britain,
France, and now India, must all be made to renounce their nuclear
weapons. Israel and Pakistan should be forced to give up their
programmes as well.
But having said this, I think that India and Pakistan have even
less "right" than the 5 NW states to possess these weapons because
the chances of the weapons being used against each other is very
very significant. It is foolish to idly debate this when tens of
millions stand in very real danger of annihilation. Academic
discussions of "right" and "wrong" can go on endlessly, but this is
a real, stark, danger. People of conscience from India and Pakistan
must speak out against nuclearization on the subcontinent.
FOURTH, is India-Pakistan nuclear war just for alarmists?
Until something happens, there will be no proof either way. Of
course, if it does happen then to debate this question will be
rather pointless. But in arguing this matter, I find that there are
many people who think that the chances of subcontinental nuclear
war are incredibly remote. Such people have chosen to live in a
fools paradise.
It is, I shall admit, quite unlikely that nuclear war will begin as
the result of serious strategic deliberations by the Indian or
Pakistani leadership. Far more likely is nuclear war by
miscalculation or accident, and the self-generating dynamics of a
crisis. Let's look at what history has to teach us. In 1965,
General Ayub Khan provoked a war with India after he miscalculated
India's response to Pakistani paratroopers dropped in Kashmir with
the aim of fomenting an uprising by Kashmiris against unpopular
Indian rule. India retaliated by attacking across the international
border and a full-fledged war erupted. In 1987, General K.Sunderji
initiated Operation Brasstacks as a training exercise for Indian
forces but nearly precipitated a war which neither side wanted, and
was only narrowly averted. In May 1990, the rise in temperature in
Kashmir lead to furious Indian troop movements which caused the
Pakistanis to believe that an invasion was imminent. Many
Pakistanis think that the Indians backed off after Pakistan began
loading nuclear weapons on to F-16's waiting at Chaklala Air Force
base near Rawalpindi. In fact such an event probably never occured,
but the myth lives on. There are probably many other illustrations
of faulty intelligence and miscalculations leading to
confrontations and near-confrontations. We should all be
exceedingly uncomfortable knowing this.
FIFTH, and finally, what will be immediate consequences of the
Indian bomb test?
Let us first think of what will NOT change. The militancy in
Kashmir is not likely to be materially affected by the nuclear
tests; the horrific brutalities will continue and wounds will
continue to bleed. The BJP has nothing but the brutal fist of iron
to show, Pakistan will continue to let militants use its territory
to launch cross-border attacks, and Kashmiris will continue to die
at the hands of both the security forces and militants. The
miseries of Kashmiris caught in a proxy war will not decrease,
ordinary Indians and Pakistanis will bear the costs of
militarization and conflict, and life will go on as usual.
What will change is economic stability and growth in both
countries. India will suffer because of the sanctions imposed upon
it, and Pakistan because it will almost certainly increase its
spending on defense. Above and beyond else, we will creep closer
towards war. There will be no winners, just losers.
These are difficult times indeed. The makers of war loudly bellow
their victory over those who ask for peace. But reason favours us,
not them, and reason must ultimately triumph. Geography has
inextricably linked together our destinies; the destruction of one
country cannot be without great harm to the other. We recognize
that pure accident -- not some great grand design -- caused us to
be born on opposite sides of the borders, and that conflict is
futile. Though our numbers be small at present, the fact is that
our mere presence today in this hall is sufficient to tell the
world -- and ourselves -- that ultimately peace and cooperation
shall triumph over war and confrontation.
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