saying no to indian and pakistani bombs

Altaf Bhimji altaf at wco.com
Mon May 18 11:23:46 PDT 1998


* 47 Civic Center Drive

_________________________________________________________________

Say No to Indian and Pakistani Bombs

by

Pervez Hoodbhoy

The Indian nuclear test of May 11 was the subject of a talk at MIT

on May 12 by Dr. Pervez Hoodbhoy, professor of physics at

Quaid-e-Azam University. He was introduced by Dr. Abha Sur of The

Alliance For A Secular And Democratic South Asia, and the event was

sponsored by The Alliance, Pakistan Students Society at MIT, and

the MIT Program In Science, Technology, and Society. The talk had

been originally scheduled a month earlier on the subject of the

India-Pakistan nuclear and missile race; the near coincidence with

the Indian tests was purely accidental.

Friends,

This is a unique gathering here today at MIT, organized jointly by

Indians and Pakistanis. I do not know of a similar event anywhere

else but can only hope that there will be many such others.

Together we stand, joined in sorrow, disbelief, shock, and anger at

yesterday's event. We stand here to challenge the merchants of hate

and destruction, the makers and promoters of weapons that kill by

the millions, and the megalomaniacs who think that greatness comes

from the power to commit mass murder. We stand in protest against

the ideologies of hate created and promoted by our governments,

nurtured by the mass media and school textbooks, and remorselessly

hammered for decades into the minds of innocent children on both

sides of the border.

There cannot be any doubt that a grave new situation has arisen

with yesterday's nuclear tests. The tremors shall continue to shake

the subcontinent in the years and decades ahead, and the peoples of

India and Pakistan stand closer to the brink of disaster than ever

before. Once the euphoria passes, there will surely be much to

regret. But now we are witnessing grotesque and obscene

celebrations of the power to destroy. Today the corks are popping

and the champagne is flowing in Delhi. "We will soon bring Pakistan

to its knees", crows the president of the BJP, Khushabau Thakre.

Barely a month ago it was Pakistan that had been joyous after the

launch of the Ghauri missile. Euphoric crowds had made their

pilgrimage to the Kahuta laboratory, and Pakistan's Foreign

Minister, Gauhar Ayub, bragged about having overtaken India in

missile development. It is hard to imagine greater stupidity.

In the remainder of this talk I shall address five key questions

which we must reflect upon in order to see what lies ahead.

FIRST, will Pakistan indeed be "brought to its knees" by Indian

nuclear tests?

The answer is probably "yes" if the Pakistani leadership reacts as

Mr. Thakre and his BJP gang would like it to, and "no" if Pakistan

acts cautiously and wisely. Should it fall into the trap and test

an atomic device, the Muslim-haters of the BJP will have the

pleasure of seeing Pakistan destroyed economically as the rest of

the world turns the screws. Certainly, international sanctions are

bound to imposed upon India; these may cause it considerable pain

but will not cause it to collapse. But Pakistan is different.

Sanctions will deal its fragile, dependent, economy a devastating,

perhaps crippling, blow and plunge the country into a horrific

state worse than that in Indonesia today. If Pakistan tries to

match India bomb for bomb, missile for missile, and tank for tank,

it will shatter as certainly as a glass vase dropped upon a

concrete floor.

At the risk of having to say "I told you so", I will nevertheless

repeat that peace activists in Pakistan have, for the last 15

years, been ceaselessly urging their government not to get into a

nuclear competition with India. This is not a race that Pakistan

can ever win. That this was correct has now been proven beyond a

shadow of doubt. We had consistently argued that the real threat to

Pakistan is internal -- low rates of production coupled with an

excessive appetite for consumption, religious and ethnic tensions,

and an education system which collapsed years ago. I was therefore

astonished -- and delighted -- when just a week ago General

Jehangir Karamat, the most powerful man in Pakistan, came out with

an amazing statement saying that Pakistan's greatest challenge was

not India but its economy and internal situation. Our "heresies" in

years past were now being repeated as an Establishment truth! Will

the enlightenment survive the Indian tests? If it does, then there

is hope.

SECOND, is India now a super-power? More secure after testing

nuclear weapons and embarking on the path to inducting nuclear

weapons in its arsenal?

With 400 million famished and deprived people, and millions living

on the streets of Bombay and Calcutta, it is simply fantasy to

think that India is now a super-power. It cannot become so even if

it explodes 300 instead of 3 bombs. Of course, national security is

the formal reason given for the tests. But I think that India has

become far more insecure after having tested. For one, China has

been unneccesarily provoked. And, for another, Pakistan is in a

state of deep alarm. Pakistan has long had a nuclear programme and,

quite probably, has nuclear weapons. In the unlikely situation that

it does not have operational weapons today, it surely will in years

to come after being so directly threatened by India. A test in the

next few days or weeks is possible but, whether that happens or

not, the fact will remain that Pakistan will now move every muscle

to have a substantial nuclear arsenal and delivery capability.

It is interesting to note that there are quite a few people in the

Indian establishment who dismiss the possibility that Pakistan is

capable of nuclear weapons. In pleading for nuclear restraint by

India with such people, many people (including myself) have been

astonished by the certainty of their belief. Numerous examples

exist that illustrate the willingness of Indian policy makers to

engage in such self-deception. Until it was confirmed from multiple

sources and could be denied no further, many in India refused to

believe that the Ghauri had been launched -- successfully. It would

be a tragic mistake for India to think that Pakistan does not, or

will not soon be able to, have operational atomic weapons.

THIRD, does India have the "right" to have nuclear weapons given

that there are five declared nuclear weapons states in the world?

The answer is NO! Nuclear weapons are evil, mass destroyers of

human life, and morally indefensible. No country should possess

them, and it is the moral responsibility of the citizens of every

country to try and prevent their country from ever possessing these

horrible weapons. The United States, Russia, China, Britain,

France, and now India, must all be made to renounce their nuclear

weapons. Israel and Pakistan should be forced to give up their

programmes as well.

But having said this, I think that India and Pakistan have even

less "right" than the 5 NW states to possess these weapons because

the chances of the weapons being used against each other is very

very significant. It is foolish to idly debate this when tens of

millions stand in very real danger of annihilation. Academic

discussions of "right" and "wrong" can go on endlessly, but this is

a real, stark, danger. People of conscience from India and Pakistan

must speak out against nuclearization on the subcontinent.

FOURTH, is India-Pakistan nuclear war just for alarmists?

Until something happens, there will be no proof either way. Of

course, if it does happen then to debate this question will be

rather pointless. But in arguing this matter, I find that there are

many people who think that the chances of subcontinental nuclear

war are incredibly remote. Such people have chosen to live in a

fools paradise.

It is, I shall admit, quite unlikely that nuclear war will begin as

the result of serious strategic deliberations by the Indian or

Pakistani leadership. Far more likely is nuclear war by

miscalculation or accident, and the self-generating dynamics of a

crisis. Let's look at what history has to teach us. In 1965,

General Ayub Khan provoked a war with India after he miscalculated

India's response to Pakistani paratroopers dropped in Kashmir with

the aim of fomenting an uprising by Kashmiris against unpopular

Indian rule. India retaliated by attacking across the international

border and a full-fledged war erupted. In 1987, General K.Sunderji

initiated Operation Brasstacks as a training exercise for Indian

forces but nearly precipitated a war which neither side wanted, and

was only narrowly averted. In May 1990, the rise in temperature in

Kashmir lead to furious Indian troop movements which caused the

Pakistanis to believe that an invasion was imminent. Many

Pakistanis think that the Indians backed off after Pakistan began

loading nuclear weapons on to F-16's waiting at Chaklala Air Force

base near Rawalpindi. In fact such an event probably never occured,

but the myth lives on. There are probably many other illustrations

of faulty intelligence and miscalculations leading to

confrontations and near-confrontations. We should all be

exceedingly uncomfortable knowing this.

FIFTH, and finally, what will be immediate consequences of the

Indian bomb test?

Let us first think of what will NOT change. The militancy in

Kashmir is not likely to be materially affected by the nuclear

tests; the horrific brutalities will continue and wounds will

continue to bleed. The BJP has nothing but the brutal fist of iron

to show, Pakistan will continue to let militants use its territory

to launch cross-border attacks, and Kashmiris will continue to die

at the hands of both the security forces and militants. The

miseries of Kashmiris caught in a proxy war will not decrease,

ordinary Indians and Pakistanis will bear the costs of

militarization and conflict, and life will go on as usual.

What will change is economic stability and growth in both

countries. India will suffer because of the sanctions imposed upon

it, and Pakistan because it will almost certainly increase its

spending on defense. Above and beyond else, we will creep closer

towards war. There will be no winners, just losers.

These are difficult times indeed. The makers of war loudly bellow

their victory over those who ask for peace. But reason favours us,

not them, and reason must ultimately triumph. Geography has

inextricably linked together our destinies; the destruction of one

country cannot be without great harm to the other. We recognize

that pure accident -- not some great grand design -- caused us to

be born on opposite sides of the borders, and that conflict is

futile. Though our numbers be small at present, the fact is that

our mere presence today in this hall is sufficient to tell the

world -- and ourselves -- that ultimately peace and cooperation

shall triumph over war and confrontation.

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