The outcome may come down to voter turnout and the ability of unions to mobilize their "No" vote to the polls in which usually is a light turnout election. Complicating matters is the fact that this primary is the first open primary in CA in which the electorate can cast their votes across party lines. How this will impact turnout and who turns out will have consequential effects on the propositions.
If there is a weakness in the union mobilization (other than the fact that the fact of 226 reflects the general weakness of the labor movement), it is that unions are targeting their members almost exclusively, yet union voters are a minority of the total electorate. On the plus side, many not necessarily union-friendly papers are editorializing against 226. United Way and other non-profits have come out against it. And there are significant corporate figures who also oppose it. This is not a reflection of their union-friendliness as much as it is self-interest at work. The non-profits fear that the language of the proposition could be interpreted to affect deductions for contributions to charities like United Way who grant money to organizations which use some portion for political activity. The large employers see administration as a bureaucratic and costly administrative nightmare. The CA mainstream corporate community is aware that the AFL-CIO has a proposition ready to place on the November ballot that would require them to get written consent from every shareholder before spending any corporate funds on politics. They would rather have the status quo, confident that they can outspend unions anyway.
On the other hand, the CA Restaurant Association has come out squarely in favor of 226 and is putting in a bundle of cash, matched dollar for dollar by the National Restaurant Association.
In solidarity, Michael
============= Support Drops for Calif. Union Plan
Saturday, May 23, 1998; 5:41 a.m. EDT
LOS ANGELES (AP) -- Support has plummeted for a statewide initiative that would weaken the political clout of unions, while a measure to end bilingual education retains strong backing, according to a poll published today.
Proposition 226 would require labor unions to get annual permission from a member before using dues for political purposes. It has support from 51 percent of likely voters surveyed, down from 66 percent in April, the Los Angeles Times poll said.
Opponents have spent $15 million on a recent TV advertising campaign.
Proposition 227, which would essentially dismantle bilingual education statewide, is supported by 63 percent of likely voters, the same as in April.
The measure is supported by about two-thirds of both Hispanic and white voters.
Pollsters interviewed 1,097 registered voters from May 16-20, including 506 voters considered likely to cast ballots. The margin of sampling error for registered voters is 3 percentage points; the margin for likely voters is 5 percentage points.
© Copyright 1998 The Associated Press =================
At 12:44 PM 5/23/98 -0400, Frances Bolton (PHI) wrote:
>
>Can someone let me know what's going on these days with Prop. 226? Who's
>ahead in the polls? And, is the opposition better organized than it was
>for Prop. 209? I'm under the impression that it's being backed financially
>by non-Californians--how are they presenting themselves?
>
>Thanks,
>Frances Bolton
>still not quite over the shock of being in CA during the Prop. 209
>campaign.
>
>
>