>What, pray tell, is the official LBO election model?
One that predicts the share of the popular vote going to the incumbent & challenging parties, based on the Gallup presidential approval rating and the year-to-year change in real disposable income per capita in the second quarter of the election year. Right 11 of the last 13 times. I stole the idea from the academic poli sci literature - from an article called, if I'm remembering right, "Why are US Presidential Elections So Predictable?"
Doug