I continue to think that Indo-US military relations have been very good in recent years; Ahmad gives some evidence of this. Perhaps the US hopes that India will indeed check China from the back. rb
India's National Magazine
From the publishers of THE HINDU
Vol. 15 :: No. 11 :: May 23 - Jun 05, 1998
COVER STORY
The Hindutva weapon
As a full-scale reactionary agenda begins to unfold, it is becoming clear that the 'consensus' behind the BJP's dangerous nuclear adventure is an attempted consensus behind Hindutva.
AIJAZ AHMAD
THE Pokhran explosions have brought independent India to a watershed comparable, in its long-term political significance, to the Sino-Indian War, the Emergency, and the destruction of the Babri Masjid. The national equation as well as India's international relations have been altered for the foreseeable future.
From the opening of the propaganda offensive by Defence Minister George Fernandes in early April to Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee's letter to U.S. President Bill Clinton after the explosions, the BJP Government has maintained its focus on China as the strategic adversary that threatens India's security directly and as the main culprit behind Pakistan's nuclear capability, not to speak of the threat it is said to pose through Myanmar. This focus on China is deliberate, as the beginning of a methodical red-baiting offensive within the country, as the inauguration of an arms race on the Asian continent, and as an appeal to long-term U.S. goals in Asia.
What we are witnessing is the staging of a short-term Indo-U.S. tension as a prelude to a long-term, comprehensive strategic alliance.
It is possible that there was an "intelligence failure" on the part of the Central Intelligence Agency and that the U.S. Government was caught unawares, as is being claimed in some U.S. circles. That is possible but not probable, given the American capabilities of global surveillance. Nor would it be the first time in recent history that the U.S. would claim an "intelligence failure" when it was necessary for it to pretend lack of advance information with regard to developments that it condones but is formally committed to opposing. The U.S. is also bound by its own laws to impose sanctions against countries that undertake such tests. A degree of tension in the short run is inevitable. But the sanctions are likely to be imposed indifferently and shall be gradually relaxed, in the not-too-distant future. Multilateral agencies such as the World Bank, and some countries such as Japan, are likely to follow the U.S. lead in the imposition as well as circumvention of these sanctions.
Meanwhile, the immediate reaction from various Western capitals shows that while the tests are being condemned all around, there is no consensus behind the sanctions and the Bharatiya Janata Party Government shall be able to ride them out easily. The fact that key countries such as Russia, France and Britain - three members out of five in the nuclear club - have not imposed sanctions is as significant as the fact that the U.S. has done so. This fact will also be cited within the U.S. for relaxing the sanctions, in view of non-cooperation from "allies" and because American sanctions in the context of this non-cooperation shall be portrayed as favourable to European capital and detrimental to American business interests. This argument shall gain further strength from the breakneck liberalisation and privatisation that the BJP Government is now bound to undertake.
Aside from a possible short-term irritation, the long-term prospect is for a closer anti-China axis between the U.S. and India. This possibility gains greater credence in the overall context in which these tests have been undertaken. We are witnessing immense intensification of an international campaign on the issue of Tibet. Key members of the Clinton administration, including high officials from the Pentagon, have visited India immediately after the BJP take-over, explicitly endorsing the regime. This occasion was used to announce, with deliberate high visibility, the impending Indo-U.S. joint exercises in high altitude combat.
(I have cut off the rest of the article.)