deflation, again

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Nov 13 11:30:38 PST 1998


[from TheStreet.com]

By Herb Greenberg Senior Columnist

Prices of DRAM chips, as well as the stock of memory chip maker Micron (MU:NYSE) and the chip-equipment makers, could get whacked in coming weeks as Korean chip makers come off a self-imposed slowdown by flooding the market with product.

The Korea Herald, which is largely overlooked by U.S. investors, reported yesterday that Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Electronics and LG Semicon -- Korea's big three chipmakers -- have resumed full production in response to a steady climb in the price of 64-megabit chips. The new supply of chips should hit the market within four weeks, just as the industry goes into a slowdown.

Chips prices rose from around $7.50 in June to roughly $10 today on fears of a shortage, thanks in part to the Korean slowdown. Micron, in fact, has been saying that its chips are on allocation. And the rising chip prices have been a key factor behind the doubling of Micron's stock in the past two months.

With demand and supply coming back into sync, according to the newspaper, the Koreans figured it was time to rev up their fabs, which had been operating only three weeks every month. Merrill Lynch analyst Paul Kim on Thursday warned of falling DRAM prices.

Micron officials couldn't be reached, but one analyst that has talked to the company says its response was that it is sold out for the rest of the year.

With more supply coming online, one thing seems clear: It won't be sold out for very long.



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