chaos, economics, and arms races

Chris Burford cburford at gn.apc.org
Wed Nov 25 14:17:52 PST 1998


At 07:17 PM 11/22/98 -0500, you wrote:
>This just in from the American Institute of Physics weekly
>newsletter. not sure whether to file it under
>ripley's-believe-it-or-not", science-in-search-of-funding,
>history-minus-the-participants, or just plain old
>hmmm-thats-interesting.
>
>les schaffer

Why not file it under, that's-probably-true?

What we are talking about is not reality but models of reality. It is most unlikely that variables covary in a constant rectilinear way. Especially not with living entities.

Not all non-linear systems conform to "chaos" theory but as far as I understand they could do so. Chaos theory anyway describes the situation with non-linear systems where a pattern of iterative interaction is relatively stable but not recurring absolutely mechanically. Then under certain conditions it can flip into another pattern of a qualitatively different nature.

What has changed is not reality but our ability to model reality. Differential calculus is no longer the peak of scientific advance. Computers give the tools to model non-linear iterative systems. More funding will head towards the development of more sophisticated models, which will sound decreasingly mechanical the more variables they include.

The overall picture has some features described by dialectical materialism, before fast computers had been invented. Or Daoism.

Chris Burford



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