Date: Sat, 28 Nov 1998 15:54:45 +0000 From: Jeffrey Sommers <jsommers at lynx.dac.neu.edu> Reply-To: jsommers at lynx.dac.neu.edu Organization: World History Center X-Mailer: Mozilla 4.07 (Macintosh; I; PPC) MIME-Version: 1.0 To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com Subject: Re: lbo-talk-digest V1 #672 References: <199811280341.WAA07321 at dont.panix.com> Content-Type: text/plain; charset=us-ascii Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7bit
Hello Brad,
I'm not so sure. The recent American Prospect has an interesting piece on this part of the world. The Czech economy is starting to go in decline. There is a dangerous anti-semitic/right-populist movement growing in Poland. Estonia might take the path you predict, but primarily due to its proximity to Finland and the infusion of funds from there. Don't see it for Latvia at all. Lithuania is tough to foresee. Of course, most of the successes can be attributed to geography and level of development prior to 1991 more than anything else, with the emphasis on the former. Shock therapy or no is almost a moot point in describing these relative successes (although I wouldn't call Latvia a success).
Regarding other areas. Belarus today, which certainly hasn't taken the shock therapy route, is far outperforming its neighbors who have, e.g. Russia and Ukraine. In fact, while it can't be called a tiger economy, it may show itself to at least become, as Boris Kagarlitsky calls it, a "tomcat economy." I'm not defending its authoritarian government, but talk to anyone who has been there and you will probably feel compelled to investigate this relatively prosperous, and by many accounts, pleasant place, to live.
Best,
Jeff Sommers
>Date: Fri, 27 Nov 1998 07:03:43 -0800
>From: Brad De Long <delong at econ.Berkeley.EDU>
>Subject: Re: Kornai and Hayek
>
>Disastrous in the east east... although countries east of the Bug that have
>not undertaken shock therapy are doing at least as badly...
>
>In the west east--the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Poland, Hungary, and
>probably the Baltic Republics (though I don't know enough) I thought that
>the results of shock therapy were actually a little bit better than I had
>expected. Don't they look on track to become western European-style social
>democracies in a decade?
>
>
>Brad DeLong
>