back-of-the-envelope calculation on budget surplus

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Thu Oct 1 08:11:43 PDT 1998


Greg Nowell wrote:


>Estimating 60 million households out of 250 million
>people, the budget surplus works out to $1100 per
>household ($70b/60m). With median family income at
>about $37k, that's a savings rate of about 3%. So we
>shouldn't say that savings are falling. Savings have
>been nationalized.

A surplus of $70 billion is about 1% of GDP. If you add together all kinds of savings - personal, business, & government - and adjust for depreciation, the U.S. net savings rate is still about the smallest in the OECD.


>I'm sure Doug could do better with the stats, but
>that's my rough 'n' ready calculation. Let me note one
>more thing. Since we can view the surplus as
>nationalized savings, why not invest it in the stock
>market, and shore up sagging equities, partially
>nationalizing capital in the process.

And who will vote the shares? Bob Rubin? Michael Jensen?

Doug



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