I'd say a market drop is practically a lock. My prediction is around 6900 on the Dow for a bottom.
As for Japan, punters say that many commodities are "denominated in dollars." What this means as a practical matter, I'm not sure, but it leads people to the conclusion that the most important rate for Japanese raw materials importers is dollar/yen.
Most important and undiscussed (as far as I know) is the fact that an easing bias at the Fed means liquidity will continue to flow away from other bonds markets and towards the U.S.. That can't be good, one suspects, for Thai banks for example.