-----Original Message----- From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> To: LBO-talk at lists.panix.com <LBO-talk at lists.panix.com> Date: 02 October 1998 14:50 Subject: question
>Those of you who think that global deflation will be a political
>opportunity for the left - why is Lula almost certain to lose badly in
>Brazil's election this Sunday?
>
>Doug
>
>It's too early in the recession for the political effects on Brazilian
workers to be apparent. The popular press has been playing down the
importance of the situation and it's noticeable that the IMF is more
concerned to bail out the Brazilian economy than it is to make loans to
Russia. This is because of the importance of Brazil to the regional
economies in Latin America. Undoubtedly there would be a dramatic
radicalisation in countries such as Argentina and Chile were the recession
to take hold there.
I don't subscribe to the view that a recession automatically leads to a
growth of the left. What I do think is the case, is that there is a growing
polarisation in which socialist ideas can win a wider audience.
In France and Germany there has been an undoubted move to the left caused by
the rise in unemployment due to their attempts to reach the convergence
criteria for the Euro. Kohl's defeat and the Jospin government are signs of
this. But in both France and Sweden, there have been significant votes for
forces to the left of social democracy. In Japan there has also been a
noticeable increase in votes for the (not very left-wing) Communist Party.
Likewise in Russia.
In Brazil, the PT under the leadership of Lula has moved to the right and
some of its support has become disillusioned. Despite this the British New
Labour Party's Prince of Darkness, Peter Mandelson criticised it as too
"old-fashioned" on a recent tour of Brazil.
Mandelson however can't take much comfort from the fact that 4 left-wingers
were elected to positions on Labour's NEC at this week's party confererence
in Blackpool. This despite a major campaign of mud-slinging by the
Blairistas.
The moral being that the political fallout is coming but it's up to the left
to provide solutions and not simply analyse events !
>