fwd: period of distress

[Rosser Jr, John Barkley]

--- Begin Forwarded Message ---
Date: Fri, 2 Oct 1998 10:41:10 -0400 (Eastern Daylight Time)
From: "Rosser Jr, John Barkley" <rosserjb at jmu.edu>
Subject: period of distress
Sender: owner-pkt at csf.colorado.edu
To: POST-KEYNESIAN THOUGHT <pkt at csf.colorado.edu>

Reply-To: pkt at csf.colorado.edu
Message-ID: <SIMEON.9810021010.B at rosserjb-7958.jmu.edu>

     The late Hyman Minsky invented the term "period of 
distress" to describe a period after a bubble peaks but 
before it really crashes seriously.  Such periods can last 
for several months.  In his _Manias, Panics, and Crashes_, 
Charles Kindleberger documents for historical bubbles over 
the last several centuries the gaps between peaks and 
crashes, and thus documents the widespread existence of 
this phenomenon, a phenomenon predicted in the models of 
DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldmann.

     The US stock market peaked on July 17 and has been 
sliding since basically.  The Fed's cut was supposed to 
prop it up.  It doesn't look like it's working.  Indeed, it 
is October, the historical month of great crashes, and 
panic finally seems to be seriously setting in.  Hold your 
hats, folks.
Barkley Rosser

-- 
Rosser Jr, John Barkley
rosserjb at jmu.edu

--- End Forwarded Message ---

-- 
Rosser Jr, John Barkley
rosserjb at jmu.edu