Deflation

Chris Burford cburford at gn.apc.org
Thu Sep 17 00:10:53 PDT 1998


At 07:21 PM 9/16/98 PDT, you wrote:
>
>In re all this deflation stuff, I had an interesting conversation
>yesterday with a friend who's a civil engineer. He does a lot of
>inspections for refinancing, etc. and he was telling me that even though
>interest rates are low, banks aren't lending money because they can't
>make a spread on the loans. Even if the almighty Greenspan does lower
>short-term rates, could we be in for a credit squeeze if long term rates
>continue to fall?
>
>Jim Baird

My understanding is that these hints, which Greenspan cannot confirm, are significant for the strategy I quoted from the Financial Times a week or two ago: a lower dollar interest rate implies an acceptance of a larger dollar trade deficit, and the generous willingness of the US to import billions of dollars worth of goods free produced by the rest of the world, in return for printing less valuable dollars.

No?

Of course even if this keeps circulation going, it does not guarantee that capitalists will be able to maintain their rate of profit. For that, further destruction of capital on a global level is necessary, in fact beyond what is necessary, so that after a period of stagnation, it can start accumulating surplus value again. Of course if all those Japanese bankers with their assets in depreciated land values, could commit hara kiri quickly that would help. But probably not enough...

BTW does not holding capital in land produce a sharp degree of gearing in a down turn? Another reform we could suggest? Or even campaign for.

After all if capitalists are panicking that they do not know the real store of value, should not democracy assert itself to say the only secure basis is living labour, not dead labour?

Chris Burford

London.



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