Deutschland

[James Farmelant]

I think that how the markets will take it will depend on what
kind of government Schroeder forms.  If he forms a "red-green"
coalition, that is a coalition of Social Democrats and Greens and
possibly also Free Democrats then we will probably have a government
that will probably try to uphold the welfare state.  If on the other hand
he forms a "grand coalition" - that is a coalition with the Christian
Democrats then we will probably be seeing a government committed
to rolling back the welfare state.  It is no secret that much of
Germany's
business community prefers the latter option.  Which option that
Schroeder chooses will no doubt depend on the final election tallies
since it is still not quite clear how the PDS did and that will in turn
effect
how many seats the Social Democrats and Greens actually wind up
with.  If he goes for the "grand coalition" option then no doubt Big
Business will be pleased and the markets will react accordingly.
On the other hand the last time West Germany had such a
government back in the 1960s, there was a social explosion as
many of the constituents of the Social Democrats reacted against

 that party's betrayal by supporting the so-called extra-parliamentary
opposition - that is the New Left.  If history should repeat itself then
the markets will presumably not be so sanguine.

			Jim Farmelant

On Sun, 27 Sep 1998 20:44:56 -0400 Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
writes:
>So Schroeder beat Kohl, contrary to Christopher Hitchens' wishes. Does 
>this
>mean anything? Most importantly, how will the markets take it?
>
>As for the supposed Third Way International, I tripped over this line 
>in
>the Reuters account:
>
>>Clinton, who all but campaigned for Kohl on a visit to east Germany 
>in
>>May, congratulated Schroeder...
>
>Doug
>
>
>
>
>

___________________________________________________________________
You don't need to buy Internet access to use free Internet e-mail.
Get completely free e-mail from Juno at http://www.juno.com
Or call Juno at (800) 654-JUNO [654-5866]