<HTML> <HEAD> <META HTTP-EQUIV="content-type" CONTENT="text/html;charset=iso-8859-1"> <META NAME="generator" CONTENT="GoLive CyberStudio"> <TITLE>The Nation - Selected Editorial</TITLE> </HEAD> <BODY BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF"> <BLOCKQUOTE> <IMG SRC="../../images/editoria.gif" ALT=" Selected Editorial"> AntiSocial Security "Privatizing at least a portion of Social Security is now pretty much a foregone conclusion," reads a memo the libertarian-conservative Cato Institute fax-blasts to reporters. The Washington Post reports that "political momentum" is building "for some form of 'privatization' of Social Security." At a forum on Social Security in Albuquerque, the President says he is "open-minded" about partially privatizing the program. The corporate-financed Democratic Leadership Council declares triumphantly that the privatizers are setting the terms. USA Today reports that two-thirds of those polled favor allowing people to invest part of their Social Security taxes in the stock market. Deal done? Social Security is going private and Wall Street is about to grab a piece of the mother of all retirement funds? Not necessarily. The privatizers want you to believe it's all over but the details, but there's still a lot of shouting to come. It is true, though, that the tightly organized, well-funded band of privateers has scooted past the less-organized forces that favor maintaining a public, government-controlled Social Security system. Over the next few months, two Social Security debates will occur. As the election approaches, Democrats will try to use Social Security as ammunition against the Republicans. House Republicans have advocated using the budget surplus for a massive tax cut (instead of reserving it for Social Security) and Democrats are hankering to accuse the Republicans of raiding Social Security for a handout to the rich. But with Senate Republicans opposing the tax cuts sought by their House comrades, the GOP may end up smothering the tax-cut fever, thus rendering it harder for the Democrats to mount the obvious assault. "All this will be a skirmish," says Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg. It is after November that the earth will move. This is when Bill Clinton, Republican legislators and others will take up the meta-issue, What to do about Social Security? The President has repeatedly talked about the need to "save" the program, reinforcing the notion that the system faces a crisis. (Social Security is expected to confront a shortfall in about thirty years--a prospect privatizers have used to whip up anxiety about the system's health--but minor reforms, like raising the cap on income susceptible to Social Security tax, could fix the problem.) After the elections, White House aides say, Clinton will hold a White House conference on Social Security. Early next year, he'll reveal his plan for reforming the program and start negotiations with Congressional Republicans. His hope is to proceed quickly with a bill in the first months of a low-sparks, nonelection year. Clinton has two basic options: Propose a plan that the core of the Democratic Party can support and wage war on the Republicans, or accept a version of privatization and trigger a fierce fight within the Democratic Party. The best guesses of the moment have Clinton shoring up the existing program but signing off on a limited form of privatization. After all, if he wants a deal with the GOP, he has to hand Wall Street something. But can Clinton cook up a privatization scheme that doesn't include benefits cuts which would make traditional Democratic constituencies howl? (Since any privatization is likely to carry with it administrative and transition costs, something will have to be squeezed to cover them.) An embrace of a bipartisan privatization plan would pose a political dilemma for Clinton. "There is no room for compromise," warns Representative Dennis Kucinich, a progressive Democrat. "Either you have a publicly protected system or the stock market will latch on to it and that will lead to a gradual hemorrhaging. There will be Democrats who resist, strongly and vociferously, any attempts to privatize Social Security." And if Clinton chooses a DLC-approved privatizing course, angry Democrats could turn on Vice President Gore. "Gore people are starting to realize Clinton could put them in a bind," says one Democratic policy expert. So far, the future of Social Security has mainly been an inside-Washington affair. "The American people haven't been let in on the emerging consensus," says Roger Hickey of the Campaign for America's Future, a left-leaning policy outfit in Washington. Hickey's group, the AFL-CIO and other progressive organizations are in the process of quilting a coalition to challenge the privateers and to rally support for the principle that Social Security should maintain guaranteed retirement-to-death benefits that keep recipients out of poverty--features not part of leading privatization proposals. (The coalition won't be backing any specific reform plans.) "Our argument," says Hickey, "is that in a global economy, with corporate downsizing, the loss of corporate pensions and downward wage pressure, Social Security is a government function that should be strengthened." The Social Security traditionalists are starting a bit late. "They have been a bit like the deer caught in the headlights," says a former aide to the Democratic Congressional leadership. "We need a larger movement to be an echo chamber for our preserveSocial Security message, and it hasn't existed. Maybe we can adopt a Braveheart scenario. Remember when Wallace tells his people to hold until the enemy is right upon them? Pulling a Braveheart in the fall may be a rational political strategy." It will be hard for the preservers to catch up to the privatizers, especially inside the capital, where the pro-privatization faxes and seminars never stop. They need to play to another crowd: citizens beyond Washington. "We have to make this a populist fight," says Senator Paul Wellstone. But that means dealing with a public that, according to various polls, has little faith that the government can deliver on the promise of Social Security and likes the idea of having more control over retirement funds but still wants its guaranteed benefits. The debate over Social Security will be a clash of philosophies (the value of communal government versus the value of the market); it will involve a tangle of political calculations; it will threaten civil war within the Democratic Party; it will pit Big Money against labor and leftists. As Washington obsesses over a certain dress, the privatizers and preservers are preparing for what is looming as the final major ideological confrontation of the Clinton years. David Corn <HR SIZE="1"> <CENTER> Join a discussion in the Digital Edition <A HREF="http://www.thenation.com/forums/forums.htm">Forums</A>. Or send your letter to the editor to <A HREF="mailto:letters@thenation.com">letters@thenation.com</A>. The Nation Digital Edition http://www.thenation.com </CENTER> Copyright (c) 1997, The Nation Company, L.P. All rights reserved. Electronic redistribution for nonprofit purposes is permitted, provided this notice is attached in its entirety. Unauthorized, for-profit redistribution is prohibited. For further information regarding reprinting and syndication, please call The Nation at (212) 242-8400, ext. 226 or send e-mail to Max Block at <A HREF="mailto:mblock@TheNation.com">mblock@thenation.com</A>. </BLOCKQUOTE> <HR WIDTH="300"> <A HREF="../../index.htm"><IMG BORDER="0" ALIGN="top" ALT="HOME" SRC="../../images/home.gif"></A> <CENTER> <A HREF="../../hardcopy.htm">This Week</A> | <A HREF="/cgi-bin/mozcheck.pl?NetscapeURL=https://www.newmedium.com/nation/sub_form.htm&OtherURL=http://www.thenation.com/sub_form.htm">Subscribe</A> | <A HREF="../../static/about/index.htm">About The Nation</A> | <A HREF="../../static/alert/descript.htm">Alert</A> | <A HREF="../../forums/forums.htm">Forums</A> <A HREF="../../audio/audio.htm">Audio</A> | <A HREF="../../backissu.htm">Archives</A> | <A HREF="/cgi-bin/common.pl?cf=nation/nationswish.cf">Search</A> | <A HREF="../../hotlist.htm">Hot List</A> | <A HREF="../../adverts/marketsp.htm">Marketspace</A> | <A HREF="../../survey.htm">Survey</A> <ADDRESS><A HREF="mailto:webmanager@TheNation.com">webmanager@TheNation.com</A></ADDRESS> </CENTER>    </BODY> </HTML>