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By Marjorie Olster
<p>NEW YORK, Aug 10 (Reuters) - A currency devaluation by
China or Hong Kong may leave a crater on Wall Street that would
make last Tuesday's sell-off look more like a pothole.<p>The Dow industrials slumped 299 points, or about 3.4
percent, in a single session last week and that was in the
absence of any major news out of Asia or the United States.<p>A slide in the yen on Monday to within striking distance of
its eight-year low against the dollar has fanned speculation
that either China or Hong Kong will soon devalue their currency
to stay competitive in export markets.<p>It is feared such a move would have a domino effect on
other Asian currencies with global repercussions.<p>``The potential would be there for a much greater than three
percent decline in the major averages,'' said Bill Meehan, chief
market analyst at Cantor Fitzgerald.<p>``It would test patience of investors...I don't know who is
going to take the other side of trade.''<p>Asia's financial crisis and its impact on the U.S. economy
and corporate profits have been at the center of concerns on
Wall Street over the past months.<p>A round of devaluations in the region would further depress
global commodity prices and hurt shares of western companies
with Asian exposure.<p>On Sunday, Chinese President Jiang Zemin repeated Beijing
was determined to avoid devaluing the yen.<p>``I don't think it is going to happen,'' Morgan Stanley Dean
Witter U.S. equity strategist Peter Canelo said of the
prospects for a Chinese devaluation.<p>The political costs for China would be high. It would lose
face on the world stage by breaking a pledge and would put
pressure on other countries in the region to follow suit.<p>It could also lead to social disruptions as the value of
people's savings fell overnight and import inflation pushed
prices up.<p>``They don't gain anything. One of China's really important
needs is foreign capital. If they devalued the Hong Kong or
Chinese currency, it would shut the window to foreign capital,''
Canelo said.<p>Chinese leaders have hinted Beijing's will to resist a
devaluation depends on Japan's ability to keep the yen from
depreciating further.<p>But on Monday, the dollar came within a hair of its
eight-year high against the yen at 146.75, reached on June 16.<p>China stepped into the foreign exchange market Monday to
defend its currency, underscoring earlier hints that yen
weakness may force Beijing to devalue. It was the third time
since July 31 the central bank had intervened.<p>If it did come to a devaluation, the U.S. stock market
would face another major sell-off that could take the Dow as
low as 8000, Canelo said.<p>``The markets are pretty shaky anyway and it certainly
wouldn't help.''<p>In Hong Kong, an administrative region of China, the Hong
Kong dollar came under attack last week as speculators bet on a
future devaluation of the yuan. Vietnam already devalued the
dong by 9.1 percent on Friday.<p>A similar move out of China or Hong Kong would have
damaging repercussions throughout emerging markets while
dampening hopes for any quick turnaround in the Asian financial
crisis.<p>It would also raise doubts about an improvement in U.S.
corporate profits next year.<p>``An event like that would call 1999 estimates into question
and pull the carpet out from under the market,'' said Meehan.
``The risk is there and that is one more factor that makes this
a fairly expensive market.''<p>Stuart Freeman, chief equity strategist at A.G. Edwards and
Sons, said the market's knee-jerk reaction could be a drop of
several hundred points in the Dow to the 8300 level.<p>The Dow touched an intra-day low of 8361 last Wednesday but
had recovered to around 8600 by Monday afternoon.<p>In the longer run, a round of devaluations in Asia could
benefit Japan by allowing the weak yen to stimulate the
economy, some analysts said.<p>Canelo said for that reason, he would view any pullback in
stocks as a buying opportunity with an eye toward a recovery
soon after.
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