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<BLOCKQUOTE TYPE = CITE>If Greenspan were do die in Andrea Mitchell's
passionate embrace this evening, Mark Jones would probably win his 3,000
Dow bet by the close tomorrow.</BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>I haven't agreed a bet yet - Sawicky did not mention a price (whatever it
is I'll pay him off at the rate of one kilo of dried roubles per $1,000).
<P>My prediction is based on the fact that the Nikkei, according to the FT
today, lost 60+% of its value after the Japanese bubble burst. The same fall
in the Dow would bring it to 3000.
<P>
<P><SPAN class=710584215-18091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=3>Payment in roubles would be two bets, or maybe
three.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN class=710584215-18091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=3>I'll
take good old imperialist dollars, thank you very much.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN class=710584215-18091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=3>Why
not say $50?</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN class=710584215-18091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=3>The
question is what your winning, target range would be one </FONT></SPAN><SPAN
class=710584215-18091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=3>year
hence. As you know the probability of </FONT></SPAN><SPAN
class=710584215-18091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial size=3>hitting a
single point in a continuous distribution is zero. It ought not to be
large, since you have the benefit of the best economic theory and I am a
mere empiricist.</FONT></SPAN></P>
<P><SPAN class=710584215-18091998><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial
size=3>MBS</FONT></SPAN></P>
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