Net Music Firms Struggle

Jim Westrich westrich at miser.umass.edu
Wed Aug 4 08:31:24 PDT 1999


I have long been very supportive of the digitalizing of music but have been vary wary of the *distribution* of music digitally. I think that the subtext of this article makes my point. The record industry is going to "force" people to go digital and try to control music consumption and listening habits far more than they can with current formats and standards. I don't know how successful they will be but I am at least somewhat worried. But then again what to management consultants *know*. They only seem to project their fantasies onto a future and try to steer us toward it.

MP3z may be a great thing for pirates and copyleftists now but I think they may be paving the way for the more restricted formats that the "music industry" wants to shove down our throats. Of course, it won't be all bad--you can make custom CD's, have access electronically to music out of print, etc. Its just that the big lure now is that is free and that is the first "feature" that will be closed.

Also, I just think that custom CDs like cheap compilations dilute the strength of broader connections an artist might want to make on albums or theme compilations.

I am so sick of the media keeping score on everything in society by stock prices.

Peace,

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Net Music Firms Struggle

Everybody knows music's future is online, but nobody knows how to make a Net profit now.

by Reuters

August 4, 1999, 3:52 a.m. PT

Moving from a "Stairway to Heaven" to a "Highway to

Hell," Internet music companies that delighted Wall Street

with recent stock debuts are playing a more somber tune

as investors take another look at their plans to reshape

the music industry.

Take what many consider to be the industry's flagship

company, MP3.com. The San Diego-based start-up lets

visitors to its Web site download more than 100,000

songs for free.

The company's stock, originally priced at $28 a share, hit

a dizzying high of $105 in its first day of trading last

month before closing up 126 percent. But the price has

steadily eroded since then, shedding $6.375 on Tuesday to

close at $33.25 on Nasdaq.

Other Internet music stocks tell the same story.

Liquid Audio, which makes a secure format for

compressing music files and is building a network to

distribute digital music, fell $2 to $24.625. Its high was

$48. Custom online CD compiler Musicmaker.com, which

peaked last month at $28.125, fell $1 to $12.56 on

Tuesday. EMusic.com, which also offers an online song

collection, shed 87.5 cents to $15.625, down from a

recent high of $35. And Launch Media, whose Launch.com

site offers streaming music videos and music news, has

fallen from a peak of more than $36 to $9.875 on

Tuesday, down 87.5 cents.

Show Me the Money

What is happening?

"The rhetoric is so far in advance of the financial reality

that some stocks go out like Fourth of July fireworks, but

anyone who does their homework finds the economics just

aren't there," said Mark Hardie, a senior analyst with

Forrester Research.

Indeed, none of the listed companies are so far turning a

profit. That's nothing new in the Internet space, but it

seems to be hitting music companies especially hard.

That may be because consumers are used to getting

digital music for free, thanks in large part to the lack of

anti-piracy features on the popular MP3 file format that

has let people make near-perfect copies of CDs and post

them to the Internet for anyone to download.

"When people get used to free, it's hard to make it not

free," said Travis Kalanick, vice president of strategy for

Scour.net, a search engine that seeks out video, audio and

radio content on the Web.

While financial details are scant for the sector, companies

are measuring quarterly sales in the hundreds of

thousands or millions of dollars, while enjoying market

capitalizations of hundreds of millions to billions of dollars.

"Nobody's buying a lot of music, and we're early in the

market and the infrastructure is not built; there's not a lot

of personal digital music players," Hardie said.

Losses Mount

Liquid Audio, which reported second quarter results on

Tuesday, said total revenues were $745,000, compared to

$500,000 in the year-ago period. MP3.com last week said

its second quarter revenues rose to $1.9 million from

$247,000 a year earlier. Both companies posted widening

losses: $6 million for Liquid Audio and $6.3 million for

MP3.com.

"I can't say what the business model is going to be that

leads to profitability in the digital download world,"

Edmond Sanctis, chief operating officer of search engine

Snap.com, said at a conference recently.

Music Labels Ready Counter-Attack

Moreover, the big music labels, slow out of the gate to

embrace the Web's potential, are taking it more seriously.

With their deep pockets and vaults holding decades of

popular music, analysts said they will pose a threat to the

start-ups.

"The majors have woken up and they can still bring

strengths and capabilities formidable in this market," said

Geoffrey Sands, a vice president of management consulting

firm Booz-Allen & Hamilton.

"There's no question we're going to see more

consolidation, outright consolidation. I think that's the next

wave," Sands said.

Digital Downloads Will Still Rule

Despite the uncertainty, analysts agree that the Internet

will radically change the way people buy and listen to

music. Store shelves will soon be stocked with an array of

cute portable devices that store CD-quality music on a

chip or card. New formats to rival MP3 are delivering

better sound quality and pleasing record labels with

guards against illegal copying.

"I am extremely optimistic about digital distribution--it is

the future of the business," Hardie said. "We're not at the

inflection point yet, and we won't be until early next year,

after a year of promotion and an installed base of players

in the hands of consumers."



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