Wages and Panic Buttons

Tom Lehman uswa12 at Lorainccc.edu
Wed Aug 4 16:55:46 PDT 1999


Ellen, there's some stuff here that I think is being missed by both you and Doug in this inflation analysis of the 1970's. First of all most places in this country you could still buy gasoline for as little as 25 cents a gallon in late 1973 and super premium gas for between 32 and 35 cents a gallon. When the oil crisis hit and gasoline started to rise in price it took the cost of transportation and doing business with it in an upward spiral. You must remember oil is a lubricant and a feedstock for many many manufacturing processes and is also used as a fuel for heating---the central commodity Farm equipment doesn't run on air, either. Everything went up---and the profits of doom along with it---including manipulators like the Hunt brothers and others who destabilized the silver and along with it the gold market. I'm not trying to write a phd dissertation here, but, I think you get my drift.

Doug, then there is the whole marketing angle and the manipulation of prices and production in the oil industry. Let's not forget that you can buy, a small future contract for 10,000 gallons of no-lead for about 55 cents a gallon or so, you might even be able to get it cheaper.

Tom L.

Ellen Frank wrote:


> lbo-talk at lists.panix.com writes:
>
> Doug wrote:
> >
> >Does it really? I thought there was a lot of recent research showing
> >essentially no relation between inflation and growth if you leave out
> >the rare instances of hyperinflation (which is usually a symptom of a
> >society in collapse). As I recall, Bob Pollin was citing this against
> >the austerity crowd. But it cuts both ways. Sure, tight money and
> >tight fiscal policy - conventional anti-inflation weapons - stifle
> >growth. But that aside, what demonstrable relation is there between
> >inflation and growth over the long term?
> A problem I have with some of the anti-NAIRU literature is that it has
> thrown the proverbial baby out in its efforts to critique the
> natural rate of unemployment idea. You can dispute the inotion
> that unemployment is "natural" without wholesale rejection of any
> connection
> between growth/ low unemployment and inflation.
> Obviously, a one-to-one relationship between growth// inflation is
> difficult to establish, since so much
> depends on the wage-setting and price-setting
> institutions in a country, but its a pretty plausible relationship, all
> in all.
> >
> >Also, some of the worst real wage declines in the U.S. were during
> >the high inflation years of the late 1970s.
> The worst sustained real wage declines in the US came during the 1980s and
> 1990s, though manufacturing wages began to decline in 1973.
> Wages didn't decline in Europe's inflation, though. Inflation is
> a mixed-bag for wage-earners, and
> so much depends on how wages are set. It's great though for
> the indebted middle-class, because historically it lowers real
> interest rates.
> > Some of the best recent
> >real wage gains have come during the last two years, a period of low
> >(and falling) inflation.
> Yes, this is true, but how long can this last? The fact that wages
> are rising without inflation (indeed with disinflation)
> is due to the weakness of 1970s style wage-setting institutions,
> like collective bargaining units and contractual raises in bureaucratic
> workplaces. Workers pay a price for this - lower job security,
> less control over hours, worsened health and safety. Workers
> are not, today, getting a dime extra without putting out
> more.
> >Finally, I'm tempted to make the argument that inflation is
> >psychologically destabilizing and leads people to a longing for order
> >- for authoritarian politics, in other words. Thatcher, Reagan,
> >Fujimori....
> I think leftists should support inflation, if only for the wealth-
> redistributing properties. Frankly, I don't know how I'll ever
> pay off my debts if the inflation rate stays near zero. There's
> no evidence that inflation is politically destabilizing in the sense
> you seem to imply -- save for hyper-inflation, which is
> always a manifestation, not a cause, of political instability. Several
> years
> back, though, Jerry Epstein at UMass wrote a paper hypothesizing
> that the US 1970s inflation, to the extent that it reflected
> irresoluble conflicts over wages and productivity and the power
> of strong unions to press for wage gains, caused finance
> and mfg capital to close ranks behind Volcker.
>
> Ellen
>
> >



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list