[This is a weird story, even for them. Especially in conjunction with Erlanger's story in the New York Times today about 7 different peacekeeper units getting fired on. The story gets confirmed in a follow-up by BBC]
2340 GMT, 990806 - Lights Out In Kosovo?
Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported August 5 that a power plant in
Bulgaria was unexpectedly shutdown August 4, leaving Kosovo without
electricity. AFP cited officials with the UN Mission in Kosovo (UNMIK)
stating that the power outage began on August 4 and could last until
August 6. The report also quoted a KFOR representative involved with
civilian operations saying the shutdown had resulted in a "busy night"
for peacekeepers, and had also affected telephone and water supplies.
British KFOR troops said that their engineers were working on
restoring the Obilic power station, which they said could provide up
to 30 percent of Kosovo's power needs. No completion time was
specified. AFP reported that the KFOR Media Center and UN police
headquarters, both located in Pristina, had power August 5. Both
presumably have generators.
Stratfor has worked diligently to confirm this story independently,
although no other media outlets have reported it thus far. The offices
of the UN High Commission for Refugees in New York and Washington,
D.C., were unaware of the situation, although later the Washington
office said it could not confirm the story. Both NATO and UN websites
were without information on the outage, and the daily NATO briefing
made no mention of it. A researcher at the U.S. Energy Information
Association said that while Kosovo was linked to Bulgaria through the
Serb town of Nis, other power lines connected Kosovo to Macedonia and
Montenegro. Furthermore, the researcher noted these lines had not been
damaged during the NATO air campaign, and could supply Kosovo with
sufficient power. Calls to KFOR headquarters in Pristina and in Italy
went unanswered.
There are numerous possibilities that accompany this information, and
while we have been unable to verify its authenticity, we feel it is in
the best interest to report it. Agence France-Presse is a reliable
source, and when contacted said they had no intention of retracting
the story. Going on the supposition that the story is correct, we feel
there are three possible scenarios concerning the power outage in
Kosovo.
First, the story is entirely genuine, and a Bulgarian power station
has been shut down. This is possible, although it fails to explain why
the power is not off in Serbia as well. The only power line coming
from Bulgaria to Kosovo travels through Nis, so the plant shutdown
would cause power to go out in Serbia as well. Power was reportedly
off for a brief time in Serbia yesterday, but it was restored within
hours. It also does not explain the darkening of Kosovo, because
Bulgaria provides the province with only a fraction of its power.
The second possibility is that the power from Bulgaria is being
terminated in Nis, effectively blacking out Kosovo. The Serb
government may have been in control of this switch for quite some
time, and has now decided to flicker the lights in Pristina. Again,
the motivation behind this move is unclear, because it is only a
temporary tactic and could have been used more effectively during the
NATO bombing campaign or earlier in the NATO occupation. Still, the
idea that the Serbs shut off the lights would explain the extent of
the blackout in Kosovo, in that Serbia could shut off more than just
the Bulgarian feed.
Finally, the power cutoff could have occurred in Pristina itself,
although whose aims this would serve is unclear. Whether the power is
being tampered with by Kosovar Albanians, Serbs or other factions on
the ground is unknown, as is the safety and security of the power
terminus from Nis. This situation is very strange, in that either no
one seems to know about it or thinks it is important, or somebody is
covering it up. Stratfor will continue to report information on this
story as it becomes available.
2310 GMT, 990806 - Kosovo Power Outage Follow-Up
Following up a previous Stratfor commentary
[http://www.stratfor.com/CIS/commentary/c9908052340.htm], BBC and
Macedonian radio have both reported that most of Kosovo is without
power due to a shutdown at a Bulgarian power plant. Officials at the
U.S. Department of Defense and the U.S. State Department said they had
no knowledge of the outage. Further attempts to contact the UN Mission
in Kosovo (UNMIK) and the KFOR headquarters in Pristina have been
unsuccessful. The lack of power in Kosovo is deemed by Stratfor to be
a serious matter, especially considering that Agence France-Presse
reported KFOR troops were being kept "busy" by irregular forces
exploiting the darkness, although the story has been strangely absent
from media reports coming from the region. We will, of course,
continue to monitor this situation.
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