>why? as the south korean economy is export dependent, why should the
>stimulus from consumption on the basis of a wealth effect ("lower interest
>rates... boosted the stock market and made people feel wealthier") augur
>stable growth in the long run? Plus, like deficit spending in Japan, this
>may be a one-shot simulus, and the economy won't be rebounding off a low
>base again. Some cyclical upturn had to be expected due to the depth of the
>downturn in both Japan and South Korea--the question is durability and
>depth of these upturns. And that seems to me to be a very open question. I
>see little reason for optimism, especially in the case of South Korea if
>China devalues.
We'll see, won't we? For now, by conventional measures, the SK economy is rebounding, and even Japan may be turning the corner. I can't say it will continue with the same confidence you say it won't; I just read the numbers as they come out, and for the last 6 months or so the numbers have been >0.
Doug