[CAPITAL JOURNAL by Gerald F. Seib]
To Really See Seattle's Legacy, Watch the Races for the House
CAN TEAR GAS LINGER for a year?
In some places, it probably will. Certainly the protesters who prompted police to send clouds of tear gas wafting over the World Trade Organization summit in Seattle fully intend to register their antitrade sentiments all the way through the 2000 election next November.
These activists' immediate and oft-advertised goal is to gun down legislation giving China permanent normal trade status, which Congress will consider next spring. Their less well-advertised goal is more far-reaching. They hope to use next year's election to make a broader change in the trade landscape -- either by frightening vulnerable lawmakers into changing their voting patterns on trade, or by creating enough grass-roots pressure to beat them at the ballot box.
Can this be done? Probably not on a large scale. But in selected districts, where free-trade lawmakers face tight races, the street-level energy displayed in Seattle could make a difference. Whether it does or doesn't depends in large measure on whether vulnerable lawmakers trying to hold the line on free trade get help from the big guns on their side, particularly Vice President Al Gore and the business community.
Normally in a presidential-election year, the hot political issues play out most prominently in the campaign for the White House. Don't count on that with trade next year, though. The top four mainstream presidential candidates -- Mr. Gore and Bill Bradley on the Democratic side, and George W. Bush and John McCain on the Republican -- all are free-traders of long standing.
THE ANTI-FREE TRADE banner therefore falls to Patrick Buchanan, who will carry it proudly. But he'll also have some trouble getting the soldiers of Seattle to march behind him. Mr. Buchanan is, of course, seeking the nomination of the Reform Party rather than the GOP, which means he's trying to appeal to a far more diverse group than ever before. But much of the punch in Seattle came from the traditional left -- liberals and environmentalists -- where affection for Pitchfork Pat and his antiabortion and anti-immigration views is decidedly limited.
"It couldn't be a better situation for us," Mr. Buchanan maintains. But he also acknowledges that, while he may get the support of some members of the labor and environmental groups fighting free trade, it will be harder to woo their leaders. "We would like to have them both," he says. "If we can't, we prefer the voters."
For activist leaders, the much sharper focus will be on the other 2000 war: the war over control of the House, where a shift of five seats could tip power to the Democrats. And the first battle will come on the vote in the House to give China permanent "most favored nation" trade status. "All of this passion from Seattle is, No. 1, going to go into the legislative fight about China, and No. 2 is going to go into the congressional elections," says Lori Wallach, a trade expert for the consumer group Public Citizen who helped organize WTO opposition in Seattle.
THUS, LOBBYING over the China vote will be intense, and lawmakers will know their votes carry immediate political consequences. The legacy of Seattle is simple. The memory of streets in chaos will cause vulnerable lawmakers to think that maybe, just maybe, anti-free-trade forces have figured out how to make a difference.
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Trade Risk
Some House members likely to be attacked for free-trade votes:
* Cal Dooley, Democrat, Calif. * Baron Hill, Democrat, Ind. * David Minge, Democrat, Minn. * Bill Luther, Democrat, Minn. * Jay Inslee, Democrat, Wash. * Bob Franks, Republican, N.J. (Seeking Senate seat) * Edward Whitfield, Republican, Ky.
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The most vulnerable lawmakers will be those who have voting records supporting free trade on issues such as China and the WTO; who face competitive races anyway; and who come from districts with active labor and environmental groups. The nearby table offers a sampling of such lawmakers.
If such members vote to extend normal trade status for China, they will be attacked. But will they be defended? Business and consumer groups have been notoriously bad at defending the defenders of free trade. Now, the Business Roundtable is at least trying to get ahead of the curve. It's already started running ads in selected congressional districts, promoting the advantages of free trade for farms and businesses.
But the real challenge faces Mr. Gore. He's a defender of free trade, but has been quiet about it lately to avoid offending his friends in organized labor. A real test of his presidential leadership skills may be whether he rises to the defense of fellow Democrats who vote for free trade next year.
Write to Gerald F. Seib at <mailto:Jerry.Seib at wsj.com>.