From dhenwood at panix.com Thu Oct 21 08:58:37 1999
What's going on, I think, is that the great U.S. bull
market, the one that began on August 13, 1982, is showing
signs of old age. It's taking as long to die as Brezhnev,
and I can't decide whether it will go out with a bang or
a whimper, but it sure seems to be going out.
For those of you keeping track, in the 7 weeks since Doug said this, the OEX is up 100 points, a 15% move. In fact, he called a local bottom almost to the day. Technically, if we had a "crash" on Monday, we'd likely be back to where we were just two months ago.
Doug, did you see those guys the other day who said that because 2/3 of the S&P 500 is in a correction right now we *can't* have a full-scale correction?
That is: the winners are so far outpacing the losers that the index continues to go up despite the fact that the losers are actually showing normal signs of correction. That could mean: there's no bull market after all, which could mean that we're *not* headed for a crash!
# Now if a six ... turned out to be nine ...
/jordan