RUSSIA: Pro-Kremlin parties strong in polls
Voters flocked to rightwing factions combining strong leadership and more arrogance towards the west. John Thornhill explains
There was no disguising the Kremlin's delight yesterday when the results of Sunday's parliamentary elections were unveiled. "Russia has just experienced a peaceful revolution," crowed Igor Shabdurasulov, deputy head of the presidential administration. "This is a colossal breakthrough."
Just a few months ago, President Boris Yeltsin's regime was crumbling fast under a fusillade of corruption scandals and critical fire from its political enemies. The appointment of Vladimir Putin, the unknown head of the FSB, the domestic security service, as prime minister in August seemed to be the last desperate gamble to safeguard the interests of the "Family", the cabal of shadowy advisers and oligarchs clustered round the Kremlin.
But the result of Sunday's parliamentary ballot was a near-complete triumph for the Kremlin. The Unity movement, which emerged as the new "party of power" within a matter of weeks, won almost 24 per cent of the vote. The Union of Right Forces, including many loyal "young reformers", also won a surprising 9 per cent. Even Vladimir Zhirnovsky's ultra-nationalist Liberal Democratic party overcame the 5 per cent barrier to win seats in the Duma. Although Mr Zhirinovsky often plays the role of the Kremlin's court jester, he has proved to be Mr Yeltsin's unfailing parliamentary ally.
True, the Communist party topped the polls and will end up with the biggest parliamentary faction. But even this may serve the Kremlin's purpose well. The Communists' success may mean that Gennady Zyuganov, their party leader, will contest the presidential elections independently rather than allying with anyone else - to the delight of the Kremlin's strategists. Just as in 1996, the presidential election can be framed as a choice between the future and the past.
Russia's stock market certainly loved the result, jumping 10 per cent yesterday. The combination of the three, rightwing parliamentary factions is likely to ensure a pro-government majority in the Duma for the first time in Mr Yeltsin's eight-year presidency.
Greg Grushko, managing director of Aton, the Moscow-based stockbrokers, forecast Mr Putin could launch a new wave of economic reforms, summoning the spectre of a Russian Pinochet.
"The Communists and their allies had a monopoly on patriotism in this country. But now it looks as though they have lost it," said Mr Grushko. "I would like to see a repetition of the Chilean scenario in Russia. The main problem in this country is corruption and it will take more repressive measures to fight it."
But what explains this extraordinary reversal of the Kremlin's fortunes?
Lilia Shevtsova, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Centre, said there were perhaps three main reasons why the pro-Kremlin movements did so well.
First, Unity benefited from its associations with Mr Putin, who is riding high in the polls because of the Chechen campaign, and the electorate's Soviet-era instincts to support the party of power. "Everyone is quite convinced that Putin is not only the future president but he is already ruling now," she said.
Second, Unity exploited a strong popular yearning for order and national pride. "This is not a return to Communism but a rebirth of Russian traditionalism. It is a consolidation of society based on a search for an enemy, a strong state, and a strong leader, combined with a bit more arrogance towards the west," Ms Shevtsova said.
Third, the Unity leadership contained fresh political faces, untainted by failed reforms or corruption scandals. Sergei Shoigu, the minister for emergency situations, who led Unity into the elections, was viewed as a highly effective minister.
What is far less certain, though, is what views the "virtual party" actually represent.
The bloc's image was created by political technologists responding to focus group results. Even Unity's elected MPs have no idea what policies they should now espouse. The most extensive exposition of Unity's views is contained in a skimpy, 12-page question-and-answer pamphlet, which hardly constitutes a coherent political philosophy.
Potential voters were told that Russians had to pay their taxes as automatically as they brushed their teeth. Privatisation was deemed to have been a good thing and would not be reversed - although Russia's market reformers had made many mistakes. Foreign policy should be reoriented away from the west towards the east. The 25m Russians living outside Russia should be regarded as a "lever of influence", which should be more effectively employed.
The national leader most admired by Unity was said to be Alexander III, the authoritarian tsar, who was able "to increase the authority of Russia and strengthen the internal unity of the country".
In the late nineteenth century, Alexander III crushed Russia's revolutionary movement and conducted a wave of counter-reforms, under the banner of Orthodoxy, autocracy, and nationality. The power of the state was buttressed and press freedom curtailed.
A political movement supporting such views appears an unlikely ally for the Union of Right Forces, which styles itself as a liberal party. But as Ms Shevtsova observed: "With the exception of Yabloko, Russia's liberals have stopped being liberals.
"In these elections, they stripped themselves of their western orientation and now combine support of the market with macho leadership and coercion," Ms Shevtsova said. "Putin is now a hostage to this macho logic."