__The nation's economy kept humming along in January, adding 245,000 new jobs, seasonally adjusted, while the unemployment rate remained unchanged from December at 4.3 percent, according to a report from BLS. January's nonfarm payroll increase was on a par with the average job gains posted over the last 12 months, and the unemployment rate has remained in the 4.3 to 4.5 percent range since April 1998. Average hourly earnings of private sector production or nonsupervisory workers were up by 6 cents in January, to $13.04, the largest monthly increase since August. ... (Daily Labor Report, page D-1; BLS Commissioner Abraham's statement, page E-3). __Unemployment rates among blacks and Hispanics fell last month to the lowest levels since the federal government began tracking them in the early 1970s, as the nation's booming economy created more jobs than expected, lifting many of the unemployed who have been left behind during other good times. ... (Washington Post, Feb. 6, page A1). __Despite freezing weather across much of the nation and a financial meltdown in Brazil, the United States economy barreled ahead last month and created a quarter of a million new jobs, twice what forecasters had predicted. And even with a heavy influx of workers into the labor force in January, unemployment stayed at 4.3 percent - the lowest level in 28 years. ... (New York Times, Feb. 6, page B1). __The U.S. economy began 1999 on a strong note: Unemployment stayed low, wages and the number of jobs headed up, and manufacturing's slide began to abate. However, there are some signs that the galloping economy may begin to slow to a more comfortable trot. The index of aggregate weekly hours worked was unchanged in January, at a seasonally adjusted 146.2. But the average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private payrolls rose 0.5 percent, the largest monthly increase since August. For the year, average hourly and weekly wages rose by 4 percent and 3.1 percent, respectively. ... (Wall Street Journal, page A2).
The oil and natural gas industry has cut 24,415 jobs since oil prices crashed in November 1997, and 17,000 more job losses appear imminent, according to the Independent Petroleum Association of America. ... (Daily Labor Report, page A-9)_____The United States oil industry stands to lose more than 17,000 jobs by this summer if oil prices do not rise above $14 a barrel over the next 6 months, an industry group reported (The New York Times, February 6, page B2, in a Bloomberg News article). .
Thanks to a strong economy and easily available mortgage money, sales of existing homes reached a record 4.79 million units in 1998, a surprising 14 percent increase from 1997. Sales of new homes topped 888,000 last year, another record. ... But last year "will be the high water mark for housing for the next generation," predicts the chief economist at Regional Financial Associations in West Chester, Pa., who sees home sales falling and home price appreciation slowing in the years ahead. He says so because the nation's real estate markets move in tandem with demographics - and the key demographic statistic to watch is household formations. In the late 1990s, the annual household formation rate has averaged a strong 1.3 million, compared with average rates of just under one million in preceding years. When times are good - as they have been for the past several years - household formations pick up as children strike out on their own earlier and that pesky roommate gets his own place. ... But household formations will slow over the next few years to an annual average of 1.1 million. Some of that slowdown comes from household formations borrowed from future years by activity in the previous three years. Baby boomers are at the age when they have formed about as many households as they are likely to. And "Baby bust" Generation Xers, whose numbers are much smaller by comparison, now make up the key household formation group. ... In addition, home sales get a boost when people move around. But as the population gets older, it moves less. ... But in the end, whatever lull is in store for the house sector is likely to last no more than 10 years. ... (The Outlook column, page A1, Wall Street Journal).
DUE OUT TOMORROW: Productivity and Costs -- Fourth Quarter 1998 (Preliminary)