-----Original Message-----
From: Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
To: lbo-talk at lists.panix.com <lbo-talk at lists.panix.com>
>It's interesting that Connerly is retreating from Florida. Is this another
>sign, along with the impeachment failure, that the right-wing culture
>warriors are on the ropes? In a world starved for good news, is this some?
Since even the California Republicans now think Prop 187 and Prop 209 were the worst political mistakes in modern state history, it may just be creeping intelligence. Demographics make unadulterated racism a loser over time, especially in multicultural states like California, Texas and Florida.
All Jeb had to do was look at the fates of Pete Wilson and his brother George W.
Pete went gungho into immigrant-bashing and bashing affirmative action. The result was the crash of his Presidential bid in 1996 and the most sweeping Democratic gubernatorial and legislative win in decades.
Compare this to George W. who refused to bash immigrants and, when affirmative action was struck down in Texas universities by the courts, the state of Texas implemented a plan to allow the top 10% of students from each high school to attend the state system - in many ways a more progressive system than the affirmative action plan it replaced. The result: George W. smashing landslide for reelection and a place as the frontrunner for the GOP Presidential nomination.
Any conservative use of race in the modern era has to be cloaked and manipulated to divide racial groups internally along class lines : attacks on welfare win, attacks on education lose. Promoting prisons win, promoting the Council of Conservative Citizens loses. The black, asian and latino middle class has to be courted or else the Right is going to shrink into oblivion.
And the smart folks recognize this. Hell, Jack Kemp and Bill Bennett both campaigned in 1984 against Prop 187 arguing this. Results just bore out their observation back then.
What is less clear is the status of social issues like abortion and gay-bashing. Modulated approachs such as banning late-term abortions and fighting gay marriage still seem to be political winners, but that is a narrowing of political ambition that does not keep the Christian Right energized.
Finding the exact modulation of covert racial and social appeals to cover up the big giveaways to the wealthy and corporations is a delicate operating now. That is a big reason why George W. is riding so high in the party, since he seemed to do such a good job with this in Texas. And Jeb is trying to emulate his brother in Florida.
-- Nathan Newman