Max Sawicky's Explication

John K. Taber jktaber at dhc.net
Mon Feb 22 15:51:49 PST 1999


mbs said:
>By now it has become clear that there is no progressive
>way to maintain 75-year solvency for the Trust Fund.
>This imperative should be abandoned, in my view. The
>Trust Fund remains as a useful record of the present
>value of payroll tax contributions in excess of costs.

According to Robert Ball, someplace in _Straight Talk_, the intent of the 75 year forecasts was political. 75 years was chosen to reassure people that within their lifetime they would get a benefit for their taxes, since 75 years was long enough to cover a concerned individual's lifetime. I didn't understand Ball completely, but apparently at the time showing a 75 year actuarial balance was not that difficult.

I'm not sure what the difference is, but showing such a long term positive balance today is problematic.

I think it should be abandoned too, since it now fails its original political intent, quite apart from being absurd on its face.

-- Homines id quod volunt credunt.



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