DJIA One Million...

[Brad De Long]

Courtesy of DENNIS_CLAXTON at fragomen.com
>
>                 Bubble psychology
>                    By David Dreman
>
>                    THE DOW IS HEADED for 1,000,000.
>                    That's what investors expect,
>                    although they probably don't
>                    know they expect it.
>
>                    Just how unreasonable are
>                    investor expectations? Try this:
>                    A recent survey by the Institute
>                    of Psychology & Markets in
>                    Jersey City, N.J. (of which I am a
>                    director) found that the average
>                    mutual fund investor expects an
>                    18.1% annual return on his
>                    capital over the next ten years.
>                    To achieve this return, the Dow
>                    Jones industrial average would
>                    have to rise to 42,000 in ten
>                    years, assuming the dividend
>                    yield stays put at 1.7%. At the
>                    same pace, the Dow would climb
>                    to 1,000,000 in 31 years.
>
>                     [......]
>