Fwd: Warning signs of the coming financial armageddon, #569

Max Sawicky sawicky at epinet.org
Thu Feb 25 13:46:57 PST 1999



>>There's a lot of nonsense in financial theory,
but the near-impossibility of beating the market and the counterproductive nature of excessive trading aren't part of the nonsense.
> >>
> >
> >This is the conventional wisdom, but so far it has
> not ben borne out by empirical data.
>
> Au contraire! For institutions, see:
> . . .
> THE COMMON STOCK INVESTMENT PERFORMANCE OF INDIVIDUAL INVESTORS
> Using account data for over 60,000 households from a
> large discount brokerage firm, . . .

To me the critical question is not what the average return is, but what the average is in, say, the top quintile of investors, and how stable this is. In other words, can you bilk the rest of the crowd if your trading practices are good enough?

mbs



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