Note that post-1980 bear markets have been short and mild by historical standards.
Doug
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BULL AND BEAR MARKETS IN U.S. STOCKS, 1877-1998 (Cowles Commission and S&P 500 indexes)
trough bear peak bull
--------------- ------------ ----------------- ------------
date level price len date level price len
monthly, 1871-1998
4/1872 5.39
6/1877 2.85 -47.1% 62 6/1881 6.83 +139.7% 48
1/1885 4.41 -35.5% 43 5/1887 6.12 +39.0% 28
12/1890 4.77 -22.2% 43 8/1892 5.85 +22.7% 20
8/1893 4.24 -27.4% 12 9/1895 5.00 +17.9% 25
8/1896 3.97 -20.6% 11 4/1899 6.75 +69.9% 32
9/1900 6.04 -10.5% 17 9/1902 9.18 +52.2% 24
10/1903 6.51 -29.1% 13 9/1906 10.43 +60.2% 35
11/1907 6.51 -37.6% 14 12/1909 10.73 +64.8% 25
12/1914 7.62 -29.0% 60 11/1916 10.80 +41.8% 23
12/1917 7.19 -33.4% 13 7/1919 10.06 +39.8% 19
8/1921 6.82 -32.2% 25 3/1923 9.97 +46.2% 19
7/1923 8.52 -14.5% 4 9/1929 29.59 +247.2% 74
6/1932 4.47 -84.9% 33 9/1932 7.65 +71.3% 3
3/1933 5.67 -25.9% 6 7/1933 10.58 +86.4% 4
11/1933 9.08 -14.1% 4 2/1934 10.58 +16.4% 3
9/1934 8.80 -16.8% 7 2/1937 17.01 +93.4% 29
4/1938 9.52 -44.0% 14 10/1939 12.53 +31.6% 18
6/1940 9.72 -22.4% 8 11/1940 10.79 +11.0% 5
5/1942 7.87 -27.1% 18 5/1946 18.70 +137.8% 48
2/1948 14.10 -24.6% 21 6/1948 16.82 +19.3% 4
6/1949 13.97 -16.9% 12 7/1956 48.78 +109.6% 34
12/1957 40.33 -17.3% 17 7/1959 59.74 +48.1% 19
10/1960 53.73 -10.1% 15 5/1961 66.50 +23.8% 7
6/1962 55.63 -16.3% 13 1/1966 93.32 +67.8% 43
10/1966 77.13 -17.3% 9 12/1968 106.48 +38.1% 26
6/1970 75.59 -29.0% 18 4/1971 103.04 +36.3% 10
11/1971 92.78 -10.0% 7 1/1973 118.42 +27.6% 14
12/1974 67.07 -43.4% 23 9/1976 105.45 +57.2% 21
3/1978 88.82 -15.8% 18 2/1980 115.34 +29.9% 23
4/1980 102.97 -10.7% 2 2/1981 128.40 +24.7% 10
7/1982 109.38 -14.8% 17 8/1987 329.36 +201.1% 61
12/1987 240.96 -26.8% 4 6/1990 360.39 +49.6% 30
10/1990 307.12 -14.8% 4 7/1998 1,156.58 +276.6% 93
9/1998 1,020.64 -11.8% 2 2/1999 1,246.26 +22.1% 5
average (count)
1877-1998 (35) -24.7% 17 +68.8% 26
1877-1899 (5) -30.6% 34 +57.8% 31
1900-1945 (14) -30.1% 17 +71.4% 24
1946-1998 (16) -18.2% 12 +69.9% 28
1946-1979 (11) -19.3% 15 +49.5% 22
1980-98 (5) -15.8% 6 +114.8% 40
daily, 1950-1998
1/5/53 26.7
9/14/53 22.7 -14.8% 252 8/2/56 49.6 +118.6% 1,053
10/22/57 39.0 -21.5% 446 8/3/59 60.7 +55.7% 650
10/25/60 52.2 -14.0% 449 12/12/61 72.6 +39.2% 413
6/26/62 52.3 -28.0% 196 2/9/66 94.1 +79.8% 1,324
10/7/66 73.2 -22.2% 240 9/25/67 97.6 +33.3% 353
3/5/68 87.7 -10.1% 162 1/29/68 108.4 +23.5% 269
5/26/70 69.3 -36.1% 543 1/11/73 120.2 +73.5% 961
10/3/74 62.3 -48.2% 630 9/21/76 107.8 +73.1% 719
3/6/78 86.9 -19.4% 531 10/5/79 111.3 +28.0% 578
11/7/79 99.9 -10.2% 33 2/13/80 118.4 +18.6% 98
3/27/80 98.2 -17.1% 43 11/28/80 140.5 +43.1% 246
8/12/82 102.4 -27.1% 622 10/10/83 172.7 +68.6% 424
7/24/84 147.8 -14.4% 288 8/25/87 336.8 +127.8% 1,127
12/4/87 223.9 -33.5% 101 7/16/90 369.0 +64.8% 955
10/11/90 295.5 -19.9% 87 10/7/97 983.1 +232.7% 2,553
10/27/97 877.0 -10.8% 20 7/17/98 1,186.8 +35.3% 263
8/31/98 957.3 -19.3% 45 2/26/99 1,238.3 +29.4% 179
average (count)
1953-98 (17) -21.6% 276 +67.4% 716
1953-79 (10) -22.4% 348 +54.3% 642
1980-98 (7) -20.3% 172 +86.0% 821