>Strictly speaking, I would think that what matters most is the relation of
>borrowing/saving to the business cycle, not a change in the long-
>run trend of borrowing. Though others are better situated to react
>to this.
Well, there was Frederick Thayer's widely cited article from a couple of years ago arguing that every time the U.S. went on a debt paydown binge - I think he counted 5 - a depression was the result. Of course, Thayer seems like a bit of a nut, so I'd want to check this myself.
Doug