I believe Carrol's on the mark here. From starting his term with the supposed support of gays in the military (a glareing non-starter put force by the non-vet, legally recognized civil partnerships would've had a better chance) and his complicated and scary sounding managed-care national health plan, I've thought that whenever he's advocateing something I might actually want for the country, he suddenly becomes the stupidest, oblivious-to-polls politician on the planet. It's just too stupid to be true. Just like this impeachment thing. Although in the Republicans case there is a very small chance that it's too stupid AND true.
Speaking of slime-ball Bill, here's what Tony Hall, his "spiritual advisor" has been up to.
Tony Hall, Clinton's spiritual advisor, has snuck a new administration policy on Myanmar into the circus tent. While all ears are on the Senate, Madeleine Albright vows to reshape foriegn policy to our enormous will, fuck our allies. And practically begs Russia to do something drastic. And now this. I wish I'd voted for Dole. The Republicans are not so fast on their feet!
Don't get too close to the screen around paragraph 4, a putrid slime is oozing out of it.
And I wish one of the academii would tell be what the tortured logic in the last two paragraphs is called. It's gotta have a name. What brand of discourse?
And the final Note. Another clue. We now know that several readers of STATFOR know that the P-3 Orion does not have in-air refueling capacity. Hmmmmmmmm. Open source intelligence?
BTW, the Right-Wingy Dingy radio hosts were hysterical about Social Security today. At least the bits I got to hear.
STRATFOR, "Among the firms making the biggest splash" in the field of open source intelligence. Time magazine, January 25, page 48 _________________________________
Global Intelligence Update Red Alert January 22, 1999
U.S. pulls away from NLD in move to shore up stability in Myanmar
Summary
U.S. Representative Tony Hall, following a visit to Myanmar, said that Aung San Suu Kyi, leader of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), should not be able to veto humanitarian aid to Myanmar. Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, made the statement in Thailand on January 17 after his visit to Myanmar where he met separately with both the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) secretary general Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt and Suu Kyi. Hall's statements, which marginalizes Suu Kyi's role in influencing Myanmar's international relations, signal a United States foreign policy initiative to avoid further conflict in the region. In Myanmar, it would appear that, at least for now, the U.S. is supporting stability over democracy.
Analysis
U.S. Representative Tony Hall visited Myanmar from January 11-14, and met with both Aung San Suu Kyi, the leader of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), and Lieutenant General Khin Nyunt, secretary general of the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). Following the visit, Hall spoke in Bangkok, where he called for increased worldwide humanitarian aid to Myanmar. Hall also spoke of his meetings with Suu Kyi and Khin Nyunt. He said Suu Kyi's opposition to foreign aid to Myanmar, which she says is just serving to prop up the military junta, should not stop NGOs and other humanitarian aid suppliers from operating in Myanmar. He further said that Khin Nyunt had assured him that the SPDC was dealing gently with the opposition. Hall's comments seem to indicate a shift in U.S. policy. The U.S., while not actually endorsing the SPDC, is backing further away from Suu Kyi and the NLD. While this seems contrary to U.S. foreign policy elsewhere, a closer examination reveals the overriding reason for the shift, a desire for stability in the area.
During the past year, tension between the NLD and the SPDC has been heating up. The SPDC has charged that the NLD is closely tied to ethnic rebels. Hundreds of NLD members in the past few months have resigned, having been pressured to do so by the ruling junta. In response, the NLD has filed suit against the SPDC for having allegedly coerced its members to resign. Hall's visit to Myanmar is a second attempt by the U.S. to broker negotiations between the two parties. It comes just a few months after a failed U.S.-backed UN initiative to settle the dispute between the SPDC and the NLD in Myanmar by offering World Bank funding in exchange for talks between the two groups. The initiative was rejected soundly by Suu Kyi, who opposes all forms of foreign aid to Myanmar until the SPDC hands over power to the NLD.
Well known for his support of humanitarian aid and human rights, Representative Hall, a Democrat from Ohio, favors such initiatives in such troubled countries as Sudan, North Korea, and Indonesia. During the last year, he has visited both Sudan and North Korea to promote humanitarian aid and constructive engagement. Hall is also close to President Bill Clinton, spiritually counseling the President in recent months and joining him at a Washington D.C. soup kitchen in the President's first public appearance after his impeachment in December 1998. His past pro-human rights and humanitarian record make Hall a prime tool for the U.S. to announce such a startling change in policy.
Before going to Myanmar, Hall was already giving ground to the SPDC, saying, "We will be talking not only about human rights, but I also want to give the government of Burma a chance to talk about their concerns." He also downplayed the effectiveness of sanctions in dealing with non-democratic regimes, claiming that sanctions almost always end up hurting the people they are trying to protect. Of his meeting with Khin Nyunt, Hall quoted the general as saying, "We are gentle and lenient with the opposition."
Hall had fewer kind words describing his meeting with Suu Kyi. He said her isolation had caused her to be out of touch with the real problems facing Myanmar. In reference to her call for all humanitarian aid agencies to deal with the NLD instead of the SPDC, he indicated that her demand had caused many NGOs to leave the country rather that get mired in political turmoil.
Hall remarked that Suu Kyi should not have control over aid. He said, "I would not say that she should have veto power at all, because once you start to do that and you start to have a precedent then you are going to have problems in other countries and that precedent should not be started in Burma."
While it may seem surprising that the U.S. would be supporting the military junta in Myanmar over the oppressed, democratically elected opposition party, democracy is not the only issue on the table. There are hotspots and potential conflicts flaring up throughout Asia. China and the Philippines, North Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Cambodia and Thailand are just a few. The U.S. is already overextended militarily around the world, and has been dialing back its involvement in Asian disputes. It does not want to see the situation in Myanmar get worse. Geographically, Myanmar controls the entrance to the Andaman Sea, at the mouth of the Straits of Malacca. Myanmar also shares long borders with Thailand, China, and the India. It is the buffer between South Asia and the Indian subcontinent. As the back door to Asia, it must remain, if not an ally of the U.S., then at least a stable nation.
It is interesting to contrast this with the U.S. policy toward Malaysia, where the U.S. backing of the reform movement is not politically but rather economically motivated. With Malaysia trying to lead South Asia on an economic path contrary to U.S. views, Vice President Al Gore stepped in and added fuel to the reformasi fire. Myanmar, on the other hand, has little economic significance for the U.S., and the current regime would never let the U.S. use its country as a rear entrance into China, nevertheless it can serve as a buffer between nations deemed more important to U.S. interests.
The U.S. has looked at the situation in Myanmar and has seen the regime rapidly dismantle the NLD. With the possible deportation of Suu Kyi not far away, the U.S. must make a move. In the past, the U.S. offered moral condemnation of the junta with little more than sanctions to reinforce its position. The U.S. realizes that it cannot handle - let alone produce - any more destabilizing factors in the region at this time, and with its confidence in Suu Kyi waning, it has now made this overture to the SPDC. Should Myanmar decide to deport Suu Kyi, the U.S. would quickly offer her asylum; but for now, we believe that the U.S. will back off of Myanmar, so long as the country remains relatively stable.
Note
Following yesterday's report, a number of our readers noted, and rightly so, that the P-3 Orion does not have in-air refueling capacity, but does have the range to carry out the presumed mission. We regret the error. However, this does not alter our depiction of the ongoing struggle between the U.S. and Bin Laden.
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