Journal of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1999 p23(1)
Changes in business cycles: evidence and explanations. Christina D. Romer.
Abstract: There have been changes in the nature of business cycles since the end of the 19th century, but not as much as foreseen by Arthur Burns in 1959, when he spoke to the American Economic Association. Recessions were more severe between the World Wars than after 1945 and prior to 1914. Expansions have tended to last longer after 1945. Policy shocks have tended to replace random shocks as triggers for recessions. Case studies also show that policies have made some postwar shocks less severe. _____________________ rb