> Technically, Clark is not the first head to roll. His is just the most
> public. Gelbard is being dispatched as ambassador to Indonesia, where
> it is questionable whether he can make the situation any worse than it
> already is. Holbrooke's bid for the post of U.S. Ambassador to the
> United Nations has been blocked twice by Republicans, which is
> understandable considering they are fond neither of him, nor of the
> UN. However, the Clinton administration has noticeably failed to lift
> a finger in his defense. Holbrooke will probably end up with his UN
> seat, though again, it will be more of a reflection of the
> Republicans' contempt for the international body than a tribute to
> Holbrooke's diplomatic skills, and both he and the organization will
> be equally ignored. And now Clark is being shuffled off to retirement
> ahead of schedule. That leaves Albright.
This is a pretty tendentious list of rolling heads. One might just as well draw opposite conclusion, that everybody's on the team that got us into Kosovo's getting promoted. Gelbard may not be able to make Indonesia worse, but being sent there is certainly not a demotion -- especially if one argues, as Stratfor has, that Indonesia will be the geo-strategic pivot point of the 00s. Holbrooke's being sent to the UN can hardly count as a demotion from his job as freelance negotiator. From there he might be demoted to Secretary of State.
And while we're on the subject, the fourth reason the Stratfor guys and gals give for Clark's early retirement [copied below], that he and Secretary of Defense Cohen hate each other, seems (a) sufficient in itself (he's only losing three months off his term, after all), and (b) openly reported in the funny papers that the rest of us read.
So it would be just as easy to interpret these events as proving that the people in Washington do believe their own press releases, are just as dumb as they look, and are rewarding everyone involved.
Mind you, I'd like to believe that the ruling class has learned as much from this as Stratfor thinks they have. But this doesn't seem to make the case.
Michael
__________________________________________________________________________ Michael Pollak................New York City..............mpollak at panix.com