>Roger Boyes on a 'stability pact' that could benefit the Balkans in an
>expanded EU
>GERMANY LOOKS BEYOND COMBAT FOR LONG-TERM BENEFIT
>WAR - vivid, simple and telegenic - supplants domestic political issues and
>squats like a fat toad on all debates. No one doubts that this week's
>European summit in Cologne will be more about Kosovo than about
>unemployment.
>There are rows going on, above all between Germany and France; there are
>tricky decisions to be taken (for example, over who should be the human
>face of European foreign policy); there are Banquo-like absentees (the
>European Commission); and buried underground there is a European election
>campaign. All of this counts for little compared with the videotaped view
>from the pilot's cockpit, the contorted faces of refugees, or the
>emotionally charged argument about the deployment of ground troops.
>Beyond war, war, beyond jaw, jaw, an interesting German-led strategy is
>taking shape. Sadly, nobody has been paying attention. Germany is playing a
>modest military role in the war and although it is reluctant to supply an
>offensive ground force, it will help to implement a peace deal. This is
>new, although no longer remarkable. More significant is Germany's readiness
>to leave the leadership of the war to the Americans, and at a stretch the
>British, while quietly carving out its own leadership role for the postwar
>Balkans. Bonn fears that it will end up paying for the war and wants at
>least the postwar settlement to be on its terms.
>The key to this is the "stability pact" for southeast Europe that is being
>cobbled together by the diplomats of Joschka Fischer, the Foreign Minister.
>Herr Fischer last week suggested that European Union membership eventually
>be offered to Albania, Europe's poorest country, and to all the republics
>of the former Yugoslavia, including a democratically governed Serbia.
>The ideas put in circulation at the Bonn meeting last week were still in
>the realms of science fiction. Could Kosovo, with EU help, be transformed
>from subsistence farming to a land of olive growers? By modernising Albania
>rapidly, prosperity could spill over the border, enriching Kosovo and
>lessening its dependency on Serbia.
>Speeding up Bulgarian and Romanian entry to the EU could also create a
>magnet of prosperity. The close neighbourhood of a flourishing pro-Western
>economy could only encourage the pro-Western modernisers in Serbia.Germans
>are ready in prin-ciple at least to bankroll the recovery, if only to keep
>at bay hundreds of thousands of refugees from the war zone.
>The Central Europeans fought for years for grudging access to Western
>markets. The process was made difficult to preserve the exclusivity of the
>European Union. Now the EU is beginning to lose that special status. Soon,
>much sooner than anyone had anticipated, the Union will be less of a
>gentleman's club and more like a noisy discothèque with ineffectual
>bouncers.
>----
>Tom Walker reports from Qafa Prushit on activity inside KLA territory near
>the border with Albania
>NATO SURVEYS ROUTE FOR INVASION
>NATO reconnaissance teams are increasingly being seen near Albanian border
>areas controlled by the Kosovo Liberation Army, leading international
>observers to believe that the alliance is routing plans for an invasion
>through corridors well-trodden by the guerrillas.
>Monitors with the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe
>working in the northern Albania border towns of Bajran Curri, Krume and
>Kukes have noticed increased Nato activity in their areas over the past few
>days. Those working in the lawless, bandit-ridden Bajran Curri area even
>witnessed an Albanian army helicopter flying senior German and American
>officers from allied headquarters in Belgium, into the town from where
>American Humvee transport vehicles have been seen driving along difficult
>tracks towards KLA border camps at Papaj and Padesh.
>There is not believed to be any formalised direct contact between the KLA
>commanders and Nato reconnaissance teams. Officially, the American army has
>a training and co-operation programme with the Albanian army, which has
>positions on the same route. But the Humvees have been seen far beyond the
>most-advanced Albanian positions, closer to the KLA corridor being forged
>from Padesh through the former Serb stronghold of Kasare and down towards
>the western Kosovo plain.
>As Nato moved in, some OSCE observers have admitted that the international
>monitoring organisation is thinking of moving out. Over the weekend,
>stability along the entire border zone deteriorated markedly, as thousands
>of new KLA recruits flooded into the guerrilla camp from their training
>bases further south in Albania. OSCE observers in Krume said that they had
>seen at least 6,000 KLA soldiers on the move over the past three days.
>There are believed to be about 10,000 in the KLA zone of operation
>stretching from Padesh in the north to the Morine crossing near Kukes.
>There was sporadic but intense shelling by Yugoslavian tanks and artillery,
>trying to pick out KLA forward bases at Cahan and Vlahene on either side of
>Pastrik mountain, the dominant feature of the border east of Prizren. At
>one point, the KLA appeared to be making significant advances, taking the
>Serb border post of Gorazhub - bombed weeks ago by Nato - and occupying the
>nearby village of Malaj. But on Saturday afternoon, the Serbs hit back,
>cutting off further KLA advances by firing two rockets towards Cahan, which
>on detonation dropped thousands of mines around the KLA base.
>One monitor said that KLA military police were stopping the OSCE from
>driving up the mountain track to Cahan. Yesterday in Kukes, the KLA helped
>to organise a refugee convoy south to new camps around Fier and Vlore. A
>week ago the KLA, like the United Nations refugee agency, was opposed to
>Nato's wish for the Kukes camps to be closed, but the latest KLA action
>suggests that Nato may have persuaded senior commanders that the camps will
>be better used by Nato troops later in the summer.