EastWest Institute
Russian Regional Report
Vol. 4, No. 21, 3 June 1999
Russian Cohesion Index: -27 (down 5 this week)
Disintegration..............T..L............0..............Democratic Federalism
(T = this week; L = last week; 0 = 17 March)
*****See the RRR website (http://www.iews.org/rrrabout.nsf) for a graphic
display of the Russian Cohesion Index since 17 March.*****
----- What initially seemed like a peaceful transition from Primakov to Stepashin has become incredibly chaotic. The short-term effect on the regions is that regional leaders have no one to talk to in Moscow to resolve their problems. In the long-term, the situation is even more alarming as there is no one planning Russia's strategic development. (-6)
+++++ Despite the overall chaos, Stepashin seems much more interested in developing good ties with the governors than Primakov was. He has said that he will personally handle this issue. In contrast, Primakov started his tenure by saying that he wanted to improve the federal government's control over the regions. (+3)
----- Yevgenii Savchenko won reelection as Belgorod's governor on 30 May partly because he moved up the date of the elections by seven months. Now other regional leaders from Moscow to Tomsk are moving election dates to suit their political needs. Playing with the rules of the game like this will definitely damage the legitimacy of Russia's incipient democratic institutions (-3)
+++++ The Russian-South Korean summit on 28 May had mixed results for the regions. While the Russian and Korean presidents signed an agreement to pursue an industrial complex in Nakhodka, the actual implementation is already mixed up in local politics. On the other hand, Rostov officials are trying to take over as much as they can of the talks to ensure increased foreign investment in local industry. The two cases show the positive and negative aspects of the regionalization of Russia's foreign policy. (+1)
----- The Fiat/GAZ and Skoda/Izhmash automobile assembly projects are being delayed in the wake of the August financial crisis. The continued delays show that real recovery from the August crisis is nowhere in sight. (-1)
+++++ On the other hand, the Tver Garment Factory, which once relied on defense orders, has found a way to survive by producing inexpensive but attractive clothing. Many other plants may be succeeding equally well, so it is hard to say what the real impact of the crisis is. (+1)