I am not sure that I agree completely. Trotsky held your view:
"Mediocrity, yes; nonentity, no," I [Trotsky] answered him
[Ivan Smirnov in 1925]. "The dialectics of history have
already hooked him [Stalin] and will raise him up. He is
needed by all of them--by the tired radicals, by the bureaucrats,
by the nepmen, the kulaks, the upstarts, the sneaks, by
all the worms that are crawling out of the upturned soil
of the manured revolution. He knows how to meet them on
their own ground, he speaks their language, and he knows
how to lead them. He has the deserved reputation of an old
revolutionist, which makes him invaluable to them as a
blinder on the eyes of the country.... [I]f everything
continues to go automatically as it is going now, Stalin
will just as automatically become dictator."
I cannot help believing that China's destiny would have been a much, much happier one had Mao suffered a fatal heart attack in late 1956, and had the Peng-Liu-Deng troika then taken supreme power.
But on the other hand I cannot help believing that Mao's key role was the result of structural factors: I think that *any* democratic institutions--whether local elections or freedom of the press or freedom of debate within the Inner Party--would have made it impossible for the Inner Party to pretend that everything was excellent...
Sincerely yours,
Brad DeLong