Will NATO bomb in future? (cf Tompson's Defeating Com. Insur)

Greg Nowell GN842 at CNSVAX.Albany.Edu
Tue Jun 15 09:21:50 PDT 1999


Well, I meant to imply, though I guess Id idn't state, that extermination/exodus/exile is the only way for the central power to respond to "people's war" (even if carried out only by a minority of the population). The Serb operation has resemblances to Operation Phoenix (driving Vietnamese to camps and urban areas, where not killed) and the French camps in Algeria. Also the British camps for the Boers in S. Africa at the first part of this century. "It's the way to go" when trying to secure political control of a large, hostile territory.

I don't recall Mao addressing the issue of mass slaughter of the "sea of the people" as a response to guerilla warfare.

-gn.

Chris Burford wrote:


> At 16:35 14/06/99 -0400, Greg wrote:
>
> >Chris--
> >
> >Thompson's Defeating Communist Insurgency (1965) is an intelligent book,
> written
> >as a response to Mao's equally or even more intelligent guide to
> subversion of a
> >central power.
>
> > By those same
> >criteria Milosovich also had a losing cause against the KLA:
>
> >B) Therefore he couldn't isolate the guerillas from contact with the Kosvar
> >population. They were the "fish that swam in the sea of the people"--which
> >almost inevitably means that operations have to be undertaken against the
> >undifferentiated mass of people in order to suppress the activiteis of a very
> >small minority..
>
> I agree. In 1998 a particularly robust attack by the Serb authorities
> against the KLA, not over-careful of the feelings of the local population,
> led to at least 1/4 million people leaving Kosovo.
>
> Certain western sources have argued that was not strictly speaking ethnic
> cleansing but a bye-product of the war.
>
> But I think most western government analysts correctly compared it to
> Bosnia and assessed that the Serb nationalists would if necessary
> essentially retaliate with a war against the Albanian population in
> response to the war of the KLA against them.
>
> This meant the Albanians could either be driven out or accept their helot
> status indefinitely.
>
> I think that Mao gives specific situations in which a people's war can
> succeed. It cannot succeed if there is no water for the fish to swim in. I
> think the Serb nationalists calculated they would consolidate their state
> on their terms - either pure Serbian or under Serb hegemony - and they were
> morally justified in imposing massive population shifts - regardless of
> loss of life - on not just Kosovo but also on Macedonia and Monenegro
> (important to secure an outlet to the sea).
>
> The west could have stood by as the British government did in Bosnia, and
> lament Balkan behaviour while looking after British imperialist interests.
>
> I agree with much of your post of course, but I do not see how the KLA had
> the terrain to fight a prolonged peoples war if their enemy were going to
> drive out the local population.
>
> The Germans claim evidence in the form of Operation Horseshoe that they
> were preparing to do just that.
>
> Chris Burford
>
> London.

-- Gregory P. Nowell Associate Professor Department of Political Science, Milne 100 State University of New York 135 Western Ave. Albany, New York 12222

Fax 518-442-5298



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