>Third, to the reporter's credit, he tracked down two indicators that show
>rising insecurity in the last few years (lay-off data from Challenger, Gray
>& Christmas, up in 1999 versus 1998; an unnamed poll of 500,000 workers
>showing job anxiety three times higher in 1998 than in the 1980-81
>recession -- I am a big skeptic of the new economy, but I find this second
>piece of evidence very hard to believe, actually).
Gallup does an irregular poll on the risk of job loss, asking people whether they fear they'll lose their job in the next 12 months. I just searched their site for 1998 or 1999 data and came up empty-handed, but in 1997, 10% thought the prospect of layoff was either "very" or "fairly" likely, compared with 16% in 1982.
Challenger's numbers are extremely unscientific. I recorded an interview with John Challenger himself once and never broadcast it because he seemed like such an idiot - and he said he thought that most of the folks laid off quickly found good jobs. Of course he would say that, running an outplacement firm.
Doug