I don't see this as a predictive exercise. I analyze the present (and how we got here) to understand and try to change it, not to predict the future. I believe that was Uncle Karl's position (and is Charles's) too, if that carries any weight with you. Analysis and prediction are different to me, starting from the difference of purpose. Is that how you see it?
Who are we trying to convince? You're getting ahead of us. This has been a discussion of how to best understand what we see around us. How to translate that to convince others is a different question, with a separate set of problems. In any case, I think, explanations can't be discussed intelligently, and probably aren't worth pursuing, without first more fully developing the analysis.